🚨 You might be surprised by what I’m about to say now.
A few weeks ago, I took a long position, and it’s already in solid profit.
Here’s the reasoning behind the trade.
The oil era is not ending, it is evolving.
ExxonMobil and OPEC now expect global oil demand to continue growing well beyond 2030, potentially even past 2050. Even the IEA and BP , once forecasting peak demand, have revised their outlooks upward.
The key question is no longer demand.
It’s supply.
The Critical Shift: Deepwater
Most conventional onshore fields have already peaked.
Future production growth is increasingly dependent on:
Offshore deepwater
Ultra-deepwater basins
These are long-cycle, capital-intensive projects with high barriers to entry — but once operational, they deliver stable production for decades.
The Underappreciated Supply Constraint
Around 2020, shipyards effectively stopped building new deepwater rigs.
Why?
Because the prevailing assumption was that:
OIL demand was about to peak
The energy transition would reduce long-term need
Deepwater capacity would become obsolete
As a result, newbuild orders dried up.
This creates a structural bottleneck:
If demand for offshore drilling increases, supply cannot quickly respond.
The Long-Term Swing Opportunity:
RIG
RIG is one of the very few companies with meaningful exposure to ultra-deepwater rigs, and it stands to benefit significantly if oil sustains above $85.
Above that level, offshore projects become far more economical, and profitability for deepwater drillers can expand rapidly.
Technically, oil’s monthly chart is forming a large wedge. These long-term compressions typically resolve with expansion, often toward the midpoint first. That alone would project oil into the $85 zone.
Longer term, new all-time highs in
USO are not unrealistic. Inflation alone shifts nominal price regimes over decades. In the 1960s, oil traded below $5 per barrel. Even without severe supply-demand imbalances, oil is likely to make new nominal highs over time.
This position is held in a separate long term account so it doesn’t drain trading focus.
A few weeks ago, I took a long position, and it’s already in solid profit.
Here’s the reasoning behind the trade.
The oil era is not ending, it is evolving.
ExxonMobil and OPEC now expect global oil demand to continue growing well beyond 2030, potentially even past 2050. Even the IEA and BP , once forecasting peak demand, have revised their outlooks upward.
The key question is no longer demand.
It’s supply.
The Critical Shift: Deepwater
Most conventional onshore fields have already peaked.
Future production growth is increasingly dependent on:
Offshore deepwater
Ultra-deepwater basins
These are long-cycle, capital-intensive projects with high barriers to entry — but once operational, they deliver stable production for decades.
The Underappreciated Supply Constraint
Around 2020, shipyards effectively stopped building new deepwater rigs.
Why?
Because the prevailing assumption was that:
OIL demand was about to peakThe energy transition would reduce long-term need
Deepwater capacity would become obsolete
As a result, newbuild orders dried up.
This creates a structural bottleneck:
If demand for offshore drilling increases, supply cannot quickly respond.
The Long-Term Swing Opportunity:
RIGRIG is one of the very few companies with meaningful exposure to ultra-deepwater rigs, and it stands to benefit significantly if oil sustains above $85.Above that level, offshore projects become far more economical, and profitability for deepwater drillers can expand rapidly.
Technically, oil’s monthly chart is forming a large wedge. These long-term compressions typically resolve with expansion, often toward the midpoint first. That alone would project oil into the $85 zone.
Longer term, new all-time highs in
USO are not unrealistic. Inflation alone shifts nominal price regimes over decades. In the 1960s, oil traded below $5 per barrel. Even without severe supply-demand imbalances, oil is likely to make new nominal highs over time.This position is held in a separate long term account so it doesn’t drain trading focus.
On Patreon, I share:
• high-probability live entries
• daily updates on open positions
• trade management & exits
• deep dives into why trades work or don’t
• live chats where I engage
• 1 free article monthly
patreon.com/cw/SwingTraderSaan
• high-probability live entries
• daily updates on open positions
• trade management & exits
• deep dives into why trades work or don’t
• live chats where I engage
• 1 free article monthly
patreon.com/cw/SwingTraderSaan
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
On Patreon, I share:
• high-probability live entries
• daily updates on open positions
• trade management & exits
• deep dives into why trades work or don’t
• live chats where I engage
• 1 free article monthly
patreon.com/cw/SwingTraderSaan
• high-probability live entries
• daily updates on open positions
• trade management & exits
• deep dives into why trades work or don’t
• live chats where I engage
• 1 free article monthly
patreon.com/cw/SwingTraderSaan
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.