NKE: Nike Stock Is Off 20% This Year and Back to 2017 Levels. Can Earnings Just Do It?

Or at the very least… help investors lace up for a comeback instead of running in circles.

👟 Nine-Year Lows and Three Big Problems

• Nike stock NKE heads into Tuesday's third-quarter earnings call hovering near $50, a nine-year low that puts the stock back at 2017 price levels and more than 70% below its November 2021 record high of $178.
• Shares are lower by 20% in 2026 alone, and the three concerns weighing on investor sentiment are a pullback in Europe, an unhealthy wholesale channel in the US, and continued sluggishness in China. Three regions, three problems, one earnings call to address all of them.
• The market is expecting revenue of $11.1 billion for the quarter, flat year on year but a meaningful improvement over the 9.3% decline recorded in the same period last year. EPS is forecast at 29 cents. Last quarter Nike beat on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA, giving the bulls something to point to.
• Nike is simultaneously trying to refocus on wholesale relationships it previously deprioritized, rebuild brand heat it allowed to cool during its direct-to-consumer pivot, and introduce new product concepts like the Mind sneaker.

⚔️ New Balance Is Not Playing Around

• The competitive pressure has a name and it is New Balance. The 120-year-old brand grew sales 19% last year and 180% since 2020, when it became the footwear world's unlikely fashion darling (dads agree).
• New Balance has raised its average selling price roughly 30% over five years while simultaneously opening 80 new stores last year alone, the exact opposite strategic playbook from Nike's ill-timed retreat from wholesale and physical retail.
• New Balance expects to cross $10 billion in sales this year, putting it approximately $2 billion behind Nike's quarterly revenue run rate. A brand that was largely dismissed as a niche dad shoe five years ago is now a serious competitor at scale.
• The broader competitive landscape beyond New Balance includes On Running, Hoka, and Adidas all taking meaningful share in categories Nike once owned comfortably. Market share, once lost in footwear, is expensive to reclaim now.

📊 The Stock Is Cheap. The Question Is Why.

• At $50, Nike trades at valuation levels not seen since 2017, before the direct-to-consumer pivot, before the pandemic boom, and before the subsequent boom and bust.
• The catch is that cheap stocks in structural resets have a way of getting cheaper before the reset is complete, and Nike has not yet demonstrated that the bottom of the reset is behind it.
• The world's biggest shoe brand still commands global scale, manufacturing relationships, athlete endorsements, and distribution infrastructure that no competitor can replicate quickly. Those advantages are real and durable.
• Tuesday's earnings call will not resolve the multi-year reset narrative in either direction, but it will tell investors whether the trajectory is improving fast enough to justify holding at current levels.