Gold is currently testing the lower boundary of the rising trend channel that has been in place since November 2024.
Trading approximately 18% below its all-time high, momentum in gold is now at its lowest level since October 2023. When we check momentum through the RSI, it sits at 32.39 on the daily timeframe — the weakest reading in the last 2.5 years.
Technical Levels
Short-term pivot: 4,966. Why does this level matter? The SMA50, which I use for short-term trend tracking, sits right at this level — and the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement lands in the same zone. FRVP VAL is also in close proximity. In short, multiple metrics are pointing to the same price.
On the downside, I'm closely watching 4,500 — a level that carries both technical significance as the rising trend floor and psychological weight. As long as we don't see two consecutive daily or weekly closes below this level, there is no major structural threat. In a black swan scenario, however, the long-term Fibonacci support at 4,123 would become the area of maximum pain for gold investors.
Conclusion
In the current geopolitical environment, gold remains the locomotive of the markets — yes, all of them.
If gold holds the 4,500–4,600 band and begins to recover strength, a test of 4,966 becomes possible. A daily close above that level would bring the rising trend back into the conversation. On the other hand, consecutive closes below 4,500 could open the door down to the 4,100 region.
Thank you for reading — feel free to like and share if you found this useful.
Trading approximately 18% below its all-time high, momentum in gold is now at its lowest level since October 2023. When we check momentum through the RSI, it sits at 32.39 on the daily timeframe — the weakest reading in the last 2.5 years.
Technical Levels
Short-term pivot: 4,966. Why does this level matter? The SMA50, which I use for short-term trend tracking, sits right at this level — and the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement lands in the same zone. FRVP VAL is also in close proximity. In short, multiple metrics are pointing to the same price.
On the downside, I'm closely watching 4,500 — a level that carries both technical significance as the rising trend floor and psychological weight. As long as we don't see two consecutive daily or weekly closes below this level, there is no major structural threat. In a black swan scenario, however, the long-term Fibonacci support at 4,123 would become the area of maximum pain for gold investors.
Conclusion
In the current geopolitical environment, gold remains the locomotive of the markets — yes, all of them.
If gold holds the 4,500–4,600 band and begins to recover strength, a test of 4,966 becomes possible. A daily close above that level would bring the rising trend back into the conversation. On the other hand, consecutive closes below 4,500 could open the door down to the 4,100 region.
Thank you for reading — feel free to like and share if you found this useful.
SPK lisanslı Midas ile ABD borsaları, BIST ve TEFAS fonlarına tek platformdan, masrafsız yatırıma başla!
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
SPK lisanslı Midas ile ABD borsaları, BIST ve TEFAS fonlarına tek platformdan, masrafsız yatırıma başla!
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
app.getmidas.com/gmih/xuyw9hdp
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.