Will a ground invasion finally move gold?From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a clear short-term downtrend following the initial geopolitical spike. Gold appears to be waiting for a stronger catalyst.
Are ground troops what gold needs to start moving upward?
Iran has claimed it could mobilise more than 1 million troops to counter what it describes as a “suicidal” U.S. ground war on Iranian soil.
The United States has deployed approximately 5,000 Marines from bases in Japan and California, alongside 2,000 personnel from the elite 82nd Airborne Division. In addition, the USS Tripoli has just arrived carrying a further 3,500 troops.
Although, diplomatic efforts are apparently still active. Talks between the U.S. and Iran are expected to take place in Pakistan in the coming days.
The key level to watch is around $4,600, which is now acting as a potential resistance.
The key trading question around any ground troop invasion announcement is whether gold would deliver only a brief spike on the news or begin a more sustained move higher.
WAR
XAU/USD | Gold Rebounds Strongly – Key Levels To Watch Next!By analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4H timeframe, we can see that price continued to follow the projected bullish scenario and pushed higher once again after holding the key demand zones discussed in the previous analysis. During today’s session, Gold extended its recovery move and reached the important $4619 level. However, after touching this resistance area, strong selling pressure appeared again and price pulled back toward the $4570 region.
Despite this short-term correction, the broader context remains highly volatile as geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States continue to influence the market. At the same time, recent comments from Trump about ongoing negotiations with Iranian officials have slightly reduced the panic in the oil market, which has helped stabilize risk sentiment and supported Gold’s recovery. It is also worth noting that just last week Gold dropped sharply to around $4100, and from that low the market has already rebounded more than $500, highlighting how aggressive the recent recovery has been.
From a technical perspective, the structure still shows signs of bullish continuation as long as the market holds above the nearby demand areas. The first important demand zone now sits between $4500 and $4545, while the deeper structural demand remains between $4350 and $4440. As long as price stabilizes above these zones, buyers may continue attempting to push the market higher. On the upside, the nearest supply zone is forming around $4620 to $4680, followed by the next major resistance area between $4720 and $4800, where stronger reactions could appear if price reaches those levels.
If bullish momentum continues to build from the current structure, the short-term upside targets to monitor are $4625, followed by $4655, then $4685, and potentially $4720 in case the market maintains its recovery momentum. As always, the reaction of price around these key supply and demand levels will determine the next major move.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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Volatility Remains Low Against the Backdrop of Falling MarketsIn spite of the recent loss of support in the QQQ and SPY the rise in the VIX remains underwhelming as M1 and M2 Money supply continue to rise. On the surface it seems like the money in the market is fearing the war and selling off as a result but if that were the case you'd think Commercial Banks would stop contributing to the rise in M1/M2 money supply and that downside volatility would be bid up much higher than it currently is but it simply has not done so yet. Additionally assets such as Gold and Silver which would normally rise on Geopolitical tensions such as the War and Supply Shutdowns such as what we are currently experiencing, have actually gone down significantly instead which signals to me that the money isn't behind this decline and isn't willing to bet that the Iranian conflict will have a big longer-term sustained impact on the economy.
Given that the drop we've seen in indexes do not align with the activity we've seen in the VIX nor Precious metals, it is likely that the drop in the markets was simply a liquidity event , an event in which the Commercial banks are willing to step up and provide the needed liquidity as made evident by the recent all time highs made in the M2 and acceleration in the lesser talked about M1 Money Supply.
The main difference between M1 and M2 money supply is that while both track the supply of money issued by central and commercial banks, the M1 excludes the supply held up in less liquid vehicles such as CDs or Savings Account while the M2 is a broader index that tracks everything. This essentially means M1 is a filter to track the supply of the most liquid money while M2 is an overall view.
Given that the big money does not seem to be betting on long term implications of this war as a whole I would suspect Oil to eventually come back down to the $60s to fill it's gap as well as for the VIX to come back down below $20 to fill it's gap and for markets to rise again as the newly issued liquidity makes its way through the system. With that being said BTC probably stands to rise more than the SPX once this happens and is actually holding up far better than the SPX during this time.
Easiest thing for me to do here would be to sell slightly OTM weekly Bear Call Spreads against the VIX or even better the 3x VIX ETF UVXY. Using the liquidity potentially gained from being profitable on those, one could then add more calls to BTC or SPX or just use it as a cash cushion.
30/03/26 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $72,026.09
Last weeks low: $65,000
Midpoint: $68,513.05
I said in last weeks outlook that the winner of the battle at the midpoint would go on to either test the either the weekly highs at $76,000 if the bulls flipped the midpoint, or if price rejected a test at $65,000 support would be on the cards should the bears remain in control. To the exact penny the bears pulled off a retest of that level with a large sell-off candle in the last hours of the week to tag the area.
Since then in the opening hours of this week we've seen another bounce up, strong reaction from the bulls and looking to test the midpoint already. With no notable data releases this week and only the Geopolitical news to react to I could see price retesting the inefficiency zones at 0.75 and of course midpoint. The overall trend is still bearish and with the SPX continuing to roll over as crude oil soars and no end to the conflict in sight, something drastic would have to happen to change the trend of this market in the short term.
Review and plan for 30th March 2026 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Gold, Oil, War: Why the Safe Haven Trade Failed This TimeEveryone's asking why gold went down during a war, especially when oil was surging and the whole situation looked like a textbook safe haven setup.
At first glance it looks strange. But when you break it down, the move makes a lot more sense.
Gold did not suddenly stop being a safe haven. The problem was that this war hit oil first , and once oil started pushing higher, the market immediately shifted to the higher inflation and higher rates story. In other words, the market was no longer just thinking about geopolitical fear. It was thinking about higher inflation, fewer rate cuts, higher yields, and a stronger dollar .
That is a much tougher environment for gold in the short term.
So instead of getting a clean “war == gold up” reaction, we got a situation where gold initially had the safe haven argument, but then lost momentum because the market started pricing the conflict as inflationary first.
And this was not just a narrative. There was real selling pressure too.
We did see meaningful ETF outflows after the war started, and derivatives markets also added pressure through long liquidation and margin-related deleveraging. So part of the move was simply positioning getting unwound. Gold had already been a crowded trade, and once yields and the dollar pushed the other way, those longs became vulnerable.
On the physical side, the story is more nuanced than some of the rumors going around.
I could not find evidence that central banks broadly started dumping gold. The one confirmed major seller was Turkey , which appears to have reduced gold reserves aggressively to manage financial stress and support market stability. According to Reuters, Turkey sold more than 50 tonnes of gold since the Iran war began. To put that into perspective, World Gold Council data shows that total gold ETF outflows over the same period were about 54.8 tonnes.
But why Turkey had to sell this much gold, weren't they one of the big buyers of gold in the past?
Yes, and the answer is:
Turkey is heavily dependent on energy imports, sourcing more than 90% of its energy from abroad.
To finance these imports, Turkey requires foreign exchange reserves, primarily US dollars to pay for energy purchases, even though it has been trying in recent years to reduce its reliance on the dollar.
Now let me take you to the other side of the middle east . . .
Rumor has it that Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf countries are also selling gold, heavily. Turkey had to sell gold because it is highly dependent on energy imports and needs dollars to pay for them. The countries around Persian Gulf are the opposite. They are major energy exporters, so their problem is not buying oil and gas. Their problem is that if war disrupts shipping and exports, then the normal dollar inflow from selling energy gets hit. And this matters even more because most of these countries have their currencies pegged to the US dollar . In simple terms, that means they keep their currency tied to the dollar at a fixed rate, so they need strong dollar reserves and enough liquidity to maintain confidence in that system. If oil exports slow down and fewer dollars come in, they may need to use reserves or liquidate assets, including gold, to raise cash and support financial stability.
That said, I should be precise here: unlike Turkey, I could not find solid confirmation that Saudi Arabia or other neighboring countries have already been selling gold heavily. But the logic is clear. If a country is dependent on oil export revenues, and war makes it difficult to physically ship that oil, then gold becomes one of the reserve assets they can tap to get quick dollar liquidity.
So the recent drop in gold was not really about “everyone selling physical gold.” It looks much more like a combination of:
oil shock
higher-for-longer rate repricing
stronger dollar and higher real yields
ETF outflows
derivatives deleveraging
and one notable forced official-sector seller in Turkey (and probably other countries around Persian Gulf)
That combination is enough to push gold down, even in the middle of a war.
Silver, of course, got hit even harder because silver is not just a precious metal. It also trades with a much more aggressive speculative and cyclical character, so when markets de-risk, silver usually feels it faster and more violently.
If we look at history, this kind of move is not completely unprecedented, but the context matters a lot.
In the 1970s, major oil shocks often happened with gold going higher as well, because those periods also came with weak confidence in fiat, high inflation, and a much more supportive macro backdrop for gold. So oil up and gold up could happen together.
This time the setup is different.
The better comparison is a modern environment where geopolitical stress creates an oil spike, and then the market immediately asks:
What does this mean for inflation, yields, the dollar, and central bank policy?
That is why this move in gold was not as irrational as it looked on the surface.
So my takeaway is simple:
Gold did not fall because the war was irrelevant. Gold fell because the market decided that the first-order effect of this war was not “panic,” but inflation risk. And in the short term, that pushed capital toward cash, dollar strength, and yield-sensitive positioning instead of straight into gold.
That is also why I think this move needs to be understood in layers.
The first layer was geopolitics.
The second layer was oil.
The third layer was inflation expectations.
And the fourth layer was forced selling and positioning unwind.
Once you see the market through that sequence, the recent drop in gold and silver looks much less strange.
Why Bitcoin and Crypto May Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions!As geopolitical tensions escalate—particularly involving major economies such as the United States, Iran, and Israel—the cryptocurrency market may be poised for a significant upward move. Historical precedent, such as the market response during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggests that digital assets can act as a hedge against traditional financial system instability. Below are three key reasons why this dynamic may repeat—and possibly intensify—in the current environment.
1. Currency Devaluation and Capital Flight
Nations directly or indirectly involved in conflict—such as the U.S., Iran, and Israel—are likely to experience heightened volatility and selling pressure on their national currencies. Citizens and investors in these regions may seek to preserve wealth by moving capital into assets that are not tied to a single government or monetary policy.
Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, offer a decentralized alternative. Historically, when fiat currencies face devaluation or loss of confidence, capital tends to flow into stores of value like Bitcoin. This pattern was observed during the Russia-Ukraine war and could repeat on a broader scale as more currencies come under pressure.
2. Disruption in Global Trade and Financial Communications
Geopolitical conflicts often lead to sanctions, restrictions on cross-border transactions, and breakdowns in traditional financial communication channels. In such an environment, cryptocurrencies provide a borderless, censorship-resistant alternative for value transfer.
For individuals, businesses, and even nations facing exclusion from systems like SWIFT or traditional banking networks, crypto offers a practical solution to continue trade and financial operations. This utility increases demand and adoption, driving long-term value appreciation.
3. The Convergence of Factors: A Shift Away from Paper Money
The combination of currency instability and disrupted financial infrastructure points to a broader structural shift. The era of exclusive reliance on government-issued fiat currencies may be nearing a turning point.
As trust in traditional monetary systems erodes, digital assets are increasingly viewed not just as speculative instruments, but as foundational components of a new financial architecture. The current geopolitical landscape may accelerate this transition, positioning crypto as a legitimate alternative for global value storage and exchange.
Conclusion
While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market appears constructive. The convergence of geopolitical instability, currency pressure, and evolving financial needs may act as powerful catalysts for adoption and price appreciation—mirroring and potentially surpassing the patterns observed during previous global conflicts.
This idea is based on My own and personal view and also previous wars In experience.
OPPORTUNITYPresent markets are dynamic and volatile mainly due to consistent wars and situations created because of such war, but these geopolitical tensions and energy crisis has opened gates for new opportunities. Many stocks are now available at much lower prices. The stocks are Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Holdings, HUL, Pidilite industries, Adani Enterprises, HDFC Bank, Procter & Gamble, Dabur, Asian Paints, Berger Paints and Page Industries. They are trading at much lower values than the all-time high values. Such stocks will give good run when situations are improved.
Please do your own analysis before investing.
Happy investing and successful trading!
Detailed Weekly View of KSE100KSE100 Closed at 151707.52 (27-03-2026)
> Bearish Divergence on Volumes playing well.
> Despite of negative news, it gave 7000 - 7500 pts upside from
our mentioned LL area.
> Megaphone Pattern Still Intact.
> though not a Good Weekly Closing but still 144000
is Important to Sustain; otherwise
> It may approach the Golden Pocket Zone which is actually
S2 Zone as mentioned in last analysis.
> However, Monthly Closing above 157000 would be OK.
> Remember that S3 is around 129k - 132k
Review and plan for 27th March 2026Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
“Peace Plan” Trading Opportunities According to a Times of Israel report, the 'gift' Iran gave the US recently was allowing an uncertain number of fuel tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
What this might signal is Iran’s willingness to engage with the peace plan reportedly proposed by the US. This is potentially overshadowing reports that the US has deployed additional troops to the region.
Thus, oil prices are under mild pressure while stocks are responding positively.
We are still waiting for Iran to properly respond or comment on the progress of the talks. Once the situation becomes clearer, volatility in these assets might pick up and strengthen the current market momentum.
UKOIL | Oil Reacts Again at $119,Distribution Before Major Drop?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is still reacting exactly as expected around the key levels discussed in the previous analysis. After reaching the $119 region last week, strong selling pressure stepped in once again and price dropped sharply toward the $99 level, confirming that sellers are actively defending this major supply zone.
Following that move, the weekly candle eventually closed around $109.5 , and with the new trading session, the market opened with a gap up toward the $113.7 region, where price is currently trading. Despite this volatility, the main structure and bearish scenario remain fully valid. At this stage, the $119 – $125 zone stands as the first major supply area, while the $125 – $138 region remains the second and most critical resistance zone, both expected to act as strong barriers against further upside.
In my view, as tensions in the region — especially around the Strait of Hormuz — begin to ease, we may see a shift in sentiment. From a structural perspective, I still expect that after a short consolidation or even a fake bullish push, the market could enter a heavy and aggressive bearish move. In that case, the first major downside target remains around $75 , aligning with the previously discussed liquidity void.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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Oil Is Breaking the Rules: The $129 Scenario Most Traders MisreaOil looks like an easy long right now.
War is escalating. Supply routes are at risk. Volatility is rising across global markets.
And yet…
Price action is inconsistent. Headlines contradict each other. Moves don’t follow a clean supply-demand model.
This is where traders get trapped.
Because they’re trying to apply logic…
In a market driven by emotion.
What’s actually happening
Oil is reacting, not trending.
Sharp spikes are followed by aggressive pullbacks. Intraday reversals are driven by headlines, not structure. Real supply risk exists, but it is not being priced consistently.
This creates an unstable environment where being right on direction is not enough.
Positioning matters more than prediction.
The $129 scenario
If the current situation continues, oil likely moves higher.
But not in a clean trend.
It accelerates.
Rising tension increases supply concerns. Positioning becomes more aggressive. Late participants begin to chase price.
This is how markets overshoot.
Not because of fair value, but because of emotion.
A move toward the $129 area becomes more likely the longer this environment persists.
The risk is not missing the direction.
The risk is getting shaken out before the move unfolds.
Why price action feels irrational
Three factors are driving current behavior.
Headline volatility creates constant shifts in sentiment. Moves are triggered by new information and often reversed just as quickly.
Crowded positioning reduces reliability. When a trade becomes obvious, breakouts are more likely to fail before any sustained move begins.
Algorithmic flows amplify both directions. Liquidity gaps and automated reactions cause price to extend further than expected.
The result is a market that moves fast, reverses often, and punishes poor timing.
The common mistake
Most traders try to trade oil directly.
In this environment, that becomes difficult.
Price is noisy, reactive, and prone to false moves.
This leads to repeated entries and exits, often with inconsistent results.
A different approach
Instead of focusing only on oil, it can help to observe how related markets respond.
Currencies tied to oil, such as the Canadian Dollar, often reflect the same underlying theme with more structure.
When oil strengthens, these currencies tend to strengthen as well. When oil weakens, they tend to weaken.
They do not always react as aggressively to every headline, which can create more stable setups.
What to focus on
The key is not predicting where oil will go.
It is understanding how it behaves.
If price continues to spike without holding higher levels, that suggests instability.
If it begins to hold and build above key areas, that suggests momentum is developing.
That shift is what matters.
Execution mindset
This type of market rewards patience.
The first move is often unreliable. Waiting for confirmation and structure can reduce false entries.
Managing risk is critical, as volatility can lead to rapid reversals.
Focusing on fewer, higher-quality setups is often more effective than reacting to every move.
The bigger picture
Markets driven by geopolitical uncertainty tend to move in phases.
Initial conditions are chaotic, with sharp and unpredictable moves.
This is often followed by a period of acceleration, where momentum builds and trends become clearer.
Most traders struggle in the first phase.
Opportunities tend to improve once the market stabilizes and direction becomes more consistent.
Oil is not difficult because it is complex.
It is difficult because it is emotional.
Understanding that difference is what allows traders to adapt.
For educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
Positioning for Trump to pull out of Iran Speaking moments ago, US President Donald Trump recently stated that Iran’s military capability is basically NIL and that the US controls Tehran's airspace. He confidently remarked, "I don’t like to say this, but we’ve won this war."
Trump also hinted at a goodwill gesture from Iran, describing it as a "present" related to oil and gas.
An Iranian source confirmed that the US initiated outreach to end the war. Trump mentioned that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are leading negotiations.
The announcement of a 5-day ceasefire on Monday led to a 10% fall in the price of crude. Now, imagine what a “Mission Accomplished” moment for this war could produce in crude.
WTI crude oil futures are up almost 4% on the day to around $91.5 per barrel. It has pulled back from a 5% gain that was being registered before Trumps new messages, but the market doesn't appear to be taking the bait of the war-coming-to-an-end messaging yet.
Review and plan for 25th March 2026Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
NIFTY FOR 25-3-26 BIG GAP UPIf Nifty opens in the range of 23,100–23,200, there are two possible scenarios:
1) The market may open and move upward immediately with strong momentum. In that case, a short-selling opportunity could arise near the 23,400–23,450 zone, with a tight stop loss.
2) If the market opens without momentum, it may retrace toward the 22,900–23,000 range. Thereafter, buying momentum could emerge in the second half of the session.
From an options market perspective, pricing dynamics suggest the possibility of a trap for call writers, warranting heightened caution. Given the persistent build-up of call writing throughout the week, a sharp directional move may be required to force unwinding of these positions. While it remains inconclusive whether the market has established a definitive bottom, my bias remains that Nifty is unlikely to breach the 22,050 level on the downside.
Gold Bullish Reversal | Targeting Buy-Side LiquidityGold has delivered a complete sell-side liquidity sweep, tapping into a key weekly SSL zone aligned with the 50% of the previous year’s range. The strong reaction from this area suggests absorption of selling pressure and a potential shift in delivery.
The prior move lower was aggressive, but it occurred through low-resistance liquidity (LRL), meaning the move lacked strong structural support. Now that price has reached higher timeframe liquidity, the market is likely to rebalance higher.
Early signs of bullish intent are visible as price rejects the lows and begins to stabilize, indicating a possible transition from bearish expansion to bullish accumulation.
Multi-Timeframe Context:
- Weekly: Price reacting from major sell-side liquidity
- Daily: Exhaustion of bearish momentum after displacement
- HTF Narrative: Liquidity objective below has been met
Current Read:
- Sell-side liquidity has been swept
- Rejection from HTF zone confirmed
- Potential shift toward bullish delivery
Trade Plan:
- Look for bullish displacement from current levels
- Enter on retracement into discount (after confirmation)
- Target buy-side liquidity / previous highs
Targets:
- Internal liquidity (mid-range inefficiencies)
- External buy-side liquidity above highs
UKOIL — History Rhymes with 2003 Cycle - Technical idea Comparing the current Brent price with historical cycles, we see an analogy with February 3, 2003, which was a local maximum of a short-term cycle. History shows that after such local highs, a correction may follow, followed by continuation of the long-term uptrend.
Technical Pattern
Red+Yellow line — movement from the local maximum on February 3, 2003, to the next major peak/potential trajectory if the current cycle follows a similar historical pattern.
Key levels:
Short-term resistance: ~115–120 USD
Support on pullback: 70-90–100 USD
Long-term target (per historical pattern): ~360 USD/barrel
Trading Strategy
Long-term: look for “buy on dips” opportunities near support (70-90–100 USD) to participate in the possible continuation of the historical growth pattern.
This is a technical idea based on historical analog, not a fundamental forecast.
Geopolitical events, OPEC decisions and global demand can significantly affect the trajectory.
Review and plan for 20th March 2026 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
UKOIL | Brent Oil Rebounds to $108, Is a Sharp Drop Still Ahead?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, price initially entered a corrective phase but then resumed its bullish expansion once again. Following that pullback, strong buying pressure returned to the market and Brent Oil pushed higher, with price now trading around the $108 region. This continued upside move is largely supported by increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are adding pressure on global supply and driving oil prices higher in the short term.
However, despite this bullish momentum, the core structure and scenario discussed in the previous analysis remain fully valid. From a technical perspective, there is still a clear liquidity void between the $73 and $76 region, formed during the previous impulsive rally. As markets tend to revisit and fill these imbalances, this zone remains a key downside target. For this reason, even with the current bullish sentiment, I still expect that Brent Oil could soon experience a sharp and aggressive drop, potentially moving toward the $76 – $73 region to fill this liquidity gap.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Dow Jones Analysis | Strong USD & Oil Weigh on Stocks!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring US30 (Dow Jones) for a selling opportunity around the 47,500 zone.
US30 is currently trading in a downtrend and is undergoing a corrective rebound, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 47,500 support–resistance area. This zone could act as a strong reaction level where sellers may step back in and continue the broader bearish market structure.
From a fundamental perspective, several macro factors are currently weighing on equities. Following the recent FOMC, the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts and reinforcing a “higher for longer” interest rate environment. Elevated yields tend to pressure equities, particularly indices like the Dow Jones.
In addition, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving a risk-off sentiment, pushing capital toward safe-haven assets such as the US Dollar and bonds, while weighing on equity markets. At the same time, higher oil prices are increasing input costs for companies, which can negatively impact profit margins—another bearish factor for US30.
With technical structure and macro fundamentals aligned, the bias remains tilted to the downside while price trades below key resistance.
If price shows rejection around this level, we could see continuation toward lower levels in line with the prevailing bearish momentum.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Review and plan for 19th March 2026Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
XAUUSD Analysis | Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish!Hey Traders,
In today’s trading session, we are monitoring XAUUSD (Gold) for a selling opportunity around the 5,070 zone.
Gold is currently trading in a short-term downtrend and is undergoing a corrective phase, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 5,070 support–resistance area. This zone could act as a reaction level where sellers may step in and continue the current bearish momentum in the near term.
From a fundamental perspective, the recent strength in the US Dollar is putting pressure on gold prices. Markets are also adjusting expectations for fewer or delayed interest rate cuts, which keeps US yields elevated and makes non-yielding assets like gold less attractive in the short term. These factors can support the temporary bearish move we are currently seeing.
However, from a longer-term perspective, the broader outlook for gold remains bullish. Ongoing global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and continued central bank demand for gold as a reserve asset continue to support the metal structurally. In risk-off environments, gold typically regains strength as a safe-haven asset.
For now, the focus is on the short-term bearish correction, while keeping in mind that the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully.
Trade safe,
Joe.






















