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SMCI

XAUUSD Rebounds From OB, but the Real Test Is Higher Gold has started reacting from the OB buy zone, showing that selling pressure is no longer moving in a straight line. After the recent flush into the 4,340 - 4,400 area, price is beginning to build a corrective rebound, but the broader structure is still not fully repaired. Trend Pulse The current reaction is technically valid because demand has responded from a key lower zone. Still, the larger trendline structure remains in place, which means this move should be treated as a recovery leg first, not a confirmed bullish reversal. As long as price holds above the current buy zone OB, the rebound path remains active. Key Price Territories Buy zone OB: 4,340 - 4,400 Preferred buy area: around 4,390 Current reaction area: 4,440 - 4,460 Buy retest zone: 4,540 - 4,580 Major overhead resistance: 5,150 - 5,200 Recent low: 4,100 The market is now trying to rotate upward from support, and the first important test sits around 4,540 - 4,580. If price can build acceptance there, the rebound may extend further into the upper supply zone. Fundamental Layer The latest geopolitical tone is adding another layer of uncertainty to the market. When tension around Iran rises again, gold can continue attracting defensive flows in the short term, especially after a sharp selloff. That supports the rebound idea, but it does not automatically change the broader structure. The market still needs to prove itself at higher resistance. Trade Scenario One actionable zone to monitor is 4,390, which sits inside the current OB demand area. If price revisits this level and shows a stable reaction, it may offer a cleaner buy-from-support scenario for a corrective push higher. In that case, the first upside focus remains 4,540 - 4,580, while a stronger continuation could open the way toward the higher resistance band. But if 4,390 fails to hold cleanly, then the rebound structure weakens and the market may slip back toward the lower base before any stronger recovery can develop. Jasper’s Take Gold is reacting well from the lower OB demand zone, and that keeps the corrective upside path open. But the bigger structure is still only in recovery mode for now. Buy zone: 4,340 - 4,400 Preferred reaction level: 4,390 Retest zone: 4,540 - 4,580 Major resistance: 5,150 - 5,200 The clean read here is simple: support has reacted, 4390 is a key buy-watch area, rebound is active, but the real decision comes higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jasper_Hayes
SMCI Short — Gap-Down Breakdown, Dead-Cat Bounce Into Supply📉 SHORT SMCI @ $21.49 🎯 Target $19.50 🛑 Stop $22.50 ⚖️ R:R 1.97:1 | 🧠 Confidence 72% | ⏱️ Swing (1-2 weeks) --- 🔑 The Setup SMCI gapped down -30% on March 20 — from $30.80 to $22 — on 55 million shares 🤯 (vs 3M avg). That's not retail panic, that's institutional distribution 🏦💨 The bounce from $19.48 to $21.50 is a textbook dead-cat rally 🐱 back into the gap supply zone. Every dollar of this recovery is lower-volume, lower-conviction selling opportunity. 📊 Why Short Here 🏗️ Structure: - 📉 Multi-month downtrend from $50+ (Oct) to $20s — no sustained base anywhere - 💥 Gap-down on 15x average volume confirms structural breakdown - 🧱 $22-23 = prior breakdown candle body, now overhead resistance - 😴 Bounce stalling with fading volume — sellers reloading at the level 🔮 Options Flow: - 🐻 Net bearish sentiment: -$470K - 📌 Heavy put buying at $20 and $21 strikes across near-term expiries - 💰 Bearish premium $1.19M vs bullish $724K - 🌡️ IV at 90%+ — market pricing continued downside 🗺️ Key Levels 🧱 Resistance: $22.00-22.50 (gap supply zone, breakdown candle body) 👉 Entry: $21.49 (dead-cat bounce into resistance) 🛑 Stop: $22.50 (above gap supply — thesis invalidated) 🎯 Target: $19.50 (prior intraday low, room to extend) 🛟 Support: $19.48 (Mar 23 flush low) 💡 The Trade Fading the bounce at resistance in a confirmed downtrend ⬇️ The massive gap-down volume created a wall of overhead supply 🧱 that should cap any recovery attempts. If $22.50 holds as resistance, gravity takes over 🪂 🛑 Invalidation: Close above $22.50 — that would mean the gap is being reclaimed and the breakdown thesis is wrong ❌ 🎯 Target logic: $19.50 is the prior intraday low. If momentum continues, $18 and $16 are the next structural supports from the longer-term chart 📏
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by ivvix
Super Micro Stock Under $20 After Brutal 33% Rout. Time to Buy?If only there was a way to track where things went wrong. The board of directors at Super Micro NASDAQ:SMCI got together one day in the boardroom and decided it’s a good idea to bring back the same executive who had already resigned once over an accounting scandal. They voted to hire him as a consultant and later promoted him to senior vice president. Then put him back on the board. That executive has now been arrested for allegedly smuggling $2.5 billion worth of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA AI chip servers to Chinese customers. And cost the company $6 billion in wiped out market cap on Friday. The Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX documentary practically writes itself. Super Micro Computer stock NASDAQ:SMCI dropped 33% on Friday after the news dropped during pre-market trading. With pre-market Monday prices at $19 (another 4% implied drop), it sits more than 84% below its all-time high of $123 from March 2024. The question the market is now chewing on: is this a buying opportunity, or is it a value trap? 🚨 What Actually Happened The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York charged Wally Liaw, a Super Micro co-founder and board member, along with a Taiwan-based company employee and a contractor named Willy Sun, with violating US export controls. The allegation is that the three conspired to ship Nvidia AI chip servers to Chinese customers, sidestepping the restrictions successive US administrations have placed on advanced chip exports to China. Liaw and Sun have been arrested. A third defendant, Steven Chang, a Super Micro sales manager based in Taiwan, "remains a fugitive," according to the Department of Justice. Super Micro itself is not named as a defendant in the indictment, which is a meaningful legal distinction, though the market on Friday was in no mood for nuance. 📜 Liaw's Remarkable Track Record Here is where the story earns its documentary potential. This is, remarkably, Wally Liaw's second act at Super Micro. He first resigned in 2018, alongside the company's finance chief, following an audit committee investigation that led Super Micro to restate its financial results. In 2020, the company paid $17.5 million to settle SEC allegations of widespread accounting violations. Liaw returned as a consultant in 2021, was promoted to senior vice president in 2022, and was reinstalled as a board member in late 2023. The due diligence conversation that preceded that board reappointment would be an interesting one to read. 📉 A Stock That Knows How to Fall Super Micro is no stranger to turbulence. In 2024, the company delayed its annual report filings following another accounting investigation, triggering a Nasdaq delisting warning . A short seller report alleging financial irregularities landed around the same time. Its auditor resigned . The stock spent most of the past two years absorbing one headline after another. Heading into Monday’s open, shares were lower by 50% over the prior twelve months. Under $20, it is trading at a fraction of the valuation that briefly made it one of the most talked-about AI infrastructure plays in the market. 🤔 So, Time to Buy? All things considered, Super Micro is a real business. It packages Nvidia's AI chips into servers and sells them to major US tech groups, sitting at a genuinely useful point in the AI infrastructure supply chain. The problem is there have been patterns. Accounting restatements, SEC settlements, auditor resignations, delisting warnings, and now a criminal indictment involving a co-founder. Each of these events, taken alone, might be survivable. Together, they describe a company with a structural governance problem that keeps expressing itself in new and creative ways. Value investors will point to the price. The stock, at $12.3 billion, is cheap relative to where it was. Risk-tolerant traders might see a bounce from oversold levels, a technical term for when selling has been so aggressive that a short-term recovery becomes statistically likely even without good news. At this point, the honest answer is that this is a speculation, not an investment, until Super Micro demonstrates that the board overhaul is real, the accounting is clean, and the next headline is something different than arrests or manhunt. At $20, the risk-reward is not obviously wrong. It’s a huge drop after all, with the stock ranking third on the “Biggest losers” board on Friday. The risk-reward is genuinely unknown, and those are very different things. Off to you : Are you looking to buy the huge dip at today’s opening bell? Or do you expect it to drop some more? Share your views in the comments!
NASDAQ:SMCI
by TradingView
21
SMCI building pressure for months… this could be the triggerSMCI has been stuck in this range for the last ~117 days, but the structure is starting to shift. Price has been printing higher lows, which usually means accumulation instead of continuation lower. On top of that, momentum on the 4H is picking up and money flow is starting to turn, so you can feel pressure building under the range. The key level here is the 41–42 zone. There’s a lot confluence sitting there: • stacked imbalances • naked POC • anchored VWAPs from the swing highs So if price pushes through that area, it’s not just a random breakout… it’s clearing a heavy confluence zone. If that happens, there’s room for a move of roughly 30%+ to the upside. For now it’s still inside the range, but the way it’s holding and building higher lows… looks like it’s getting ready. Options idea (not financial advice): Looking at calls into a breakout: • $35.5 strike – 03/27/25 – around $0.26 • $39 strike – 03/27/25 – around $0.10 Key level to watch: 41–42.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Turttle_Trader
Supermicro (SMCI)Shares of Supermicro (SMCI) experienced a dramatic decline, tumbling by as much as 28 percent during trading on Friday. The sharp sell-off followed the unsealing of a federal indictment, which revealed that U.S. prosecutors had formally charged two senior employees and an external contractor associated with the company. The charges stem from allegations that the individuals orchestrated a scheme to smuggle servers equipped with advanced Nvidia (NVDA) chips to China, directly contravening U.S. export control regulations established to restrict the transfer of sensitive technology to adversarial nations. The indictment, brought forth by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, names Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw, a co-founder of Supermicro who holds U.S. citizenship and currently serves on the company’s board of directors as well as senior vice president of business development. Also charged are Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Chang, a sales manager based in Taiwan, and Ting-Wei "Willy" Sun, a contractor whom authorities characterized as a “fixer” due to his alleged role in facilitating the transactions. According to prosecutors, the three individuals were central figures in a complex operation that successfully routed approximately $2.5 billion worth of American-made servers to Chinese entities between 2024 and 2025. Court documents further detail the alleged methodology behind the operation. The defendants are accused of selling the advanced artificial intelligence server technology to an intermediary company located in Southeast Asia, fully aware that the ultimate destination for the equipment was China, which the U.S. designates as a strategic adversary. To circumvent inspection protocols, they are said to have fabricated shipping documents and staged thousands of so-called “dummy” servers—functionally inert replicas intended to mimic the genuine products—which were presented for official review at the Southeast Asian location. Meanwhile, the actual, fully functional servers were unlawfully redirected and forwarded to their intended recipients in China. In response to the unfolding legal situation, Supermicro issued a statement confirming that it has placed the two implicated employees on administrative leave effective immediately and has terminated its business relationship with the contractor involved. Supermicro, which is headquartered in California, occupies a critical position in the artificial intelligence hardware supply chain as a primary assembler of AI servers that utilize Nvidia’s high-performance components. According to data from Bloomberg, the company accounts for roughly 9 percent of the chipmaker’s total revenue, underscoring its significant role in the AI ecosystem. The company’s stock had seen a substantial surge throughout 2024, riding a wave of unprecedented demand for AI infrastructure. However, in more recent months, the share price has faced considerable downward pressure, culminating in a 42 percent decline over the past year as the company has grappled with a series of escalating controversies. This latest legal development adds to a growing list of challenges for Supermicro. During the summer of 2024, the prominent short-selling firm Hindenburg Research published a scathing report that accused the company of flouting export control laws and flagged serious accounting irregularities. In the aftermath of those allegations, Supermicro faced significant operational disruptions, including delays in filing its quarterly and annual reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The situation was further exacerbated by the resignation of the company’s independent accounting firm, which raised concerns about the reliability of its financial disclosures. These events pushed the company to the brink of being delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange, though it ultimately managed to secure compliance and narrowly avoid such an outcome.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by KalaGhazi
2
SMCI 4-month consolidation could be a bottom.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been ranging for exactly the past 4 months (since the November 17 2025 candle), when it broke below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This consolidation is no technical accident as it is taking place on Support 1 (27.50), the April 07 2025 Low and could be an indication of a medium-term bottom. To confirm that however, it needs to break above its 1W MA200 again but on the bullish side, it is already trading above the 1W RSI MA (similar to December 2024 - January 2025) and just completed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross (similar to December 09 2024). As a result, as long as Support 1 holds, it is likely to see a rally towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the previous Lower High) at $52.00. A weekly closing however below Support 1, eyes Support 2 at $17.25. The price is currently close enough to Support 1 to allow solid Risk/ Reward and SL placements on this strategy. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCI
by TradingShot
1
Week 6 of 52|SMCI Momentum Fueled by Earnings BeatSMCI is showing renewed strength after the company just reported very strong Q2 results, beating top-line expectations with record revenue (~$12.7 B) and raising its full-year outlook to at least $40 B amid continued demand for AI-optimized servers. Investors have reacted positively in after-hours trading, suggesting that the AI infrastructure story remains intact despite margin pressure. This earnings beat, strong guidance, and leadership in AI datacenter hardware are supporting bullish sentiment — and today’s upside move could be the first leg of a larger rebound if buyers step in near key demand levels. Entry Zones: • 🟢 $31.7 – Recent after-market pivot (first entry) • 🟡 $30.9 – Secondary support entry • 🟠 $29.9 – Lower support for deeper pullbacks Profit Targets: • 📈 $33/36 – initial resistance + short-term swing • 🚀 $45+ – extended momentum target if upside continues Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and evaluate your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Robert_V12
SMCI Loss of this Support can result into crash to $10.Supermicro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been under heavy pressure since its March 2024 ATH and last month hit and held its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a key Support level, which even though it broke on the November 2024 crash, the price managed to recover and close the month back up above it. In fact, the last time SMCI closed a month below it was in March 2020 during the COVID flash-crash. As a result, loss of this level can result into an accelerated sell-off, technically the second Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Up, towards the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). If it is as strong as the first Bearish Leg, then we should be expecting a -86% decline to $10.00, which would technically make contact with the 1M MA200. Notice also how similar the current 1M RSI structure is with SMCI's last Channel Down correction in 2015 - 2018. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by TradingShot
5
SMCI cools the servers while the market warms up expectationsSMCI continues to move inside an ascending channel and is currently trading in the buy zone between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels. Strong demand appears within this range and the ma200 adds structural support as a dynamic base. Weekly divergence indicates weakening selling pressure and increases the probability of a renewed upward cycle. As long as price holds above the ma200 and stays within the channel, the structure remains bullish with the next targets at 41.88 and later at 62.35. Super Micro Computer remains one of the global leaders in artificial intelligence server infrastructure. As of December 4, trailing twelve month revenue stands near 14.9 billion dollars. Net income exceeds 850 million dollars and cash reserves remain above three billion dollars. The company expands production of liquid cooled systems and next generation platforms for advanced model training. Global demand for artificial intelligence compute capacity continues to strengthen revenue and support margins. Minimal debt levels provide stability during market volatility. As long as price remains within the buy zone between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels and above the ma200, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid. A confirmed breakout opens the way toward 41.88 and later toward 62.35. Technical and fundamental signals currently align which increases the probability of a new upward wave. Servers cool down slowly, but trends usually heat up faster, especially with charts like this.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TotoshkaTrades
6
SMCI - Bull Flag Breakout SetupSMCI formed a strong bullish impulse followed by a bull flag pattern. A breakout above the flag structure may signal continuation if confirmed with strong price action. Trade Plan: • Entry: On breakout or retest • Stop Loss: Below flag support • TP1: Recent high • TP2: Measured flagpole extension This setup is worth monitoring for potential bullish continuation. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Binhuseyn
4
Is AMD expensive? Earnings News!AMD just posted a double beat and reporting a record amount of revenue. crossing the $9billion mark. The company expects revenue of about $9.6 billion for the next quarter, plus or minus $300 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of $9.15 billion. AMD last month said it would supply AI chips to OpenAI in a multi-year deal that would bring in tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and give the startup the option to buy up to roughly 10% of the chipmaker. The deal covers the deployment of hundreds of thousands of AMD's graphics processing units (GPUs), roughly equivalent to the energy needs of 5 million U.S. households, or about thrice the amount of power produced by the Hoover Dam. The stock still seems a bit expensive for my liking but a good solid report.
NASDAQ:AMD
by Trading-Capital
SMCI – Sell the Spike, Buy the Dip Again?With SMCI approaching a key resistance zone around $64, I'm preparing for a potential pullback. If the price fails to break through that level convincingly, we could see a healthy dip — which I’ll use to re-enter. This is a classic “sell high to buy lower” setup — let the market breathe, then strike. 🟢 Entry Points (Buy the Dip): $49 $45 $40 🔴 Profit Targets: ✅ $55 – quick bounce zone ✅ $60 – key resistance ✅ $65+ – if momentum continues 📌 Let the chart come to you — don’t chase. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and evaluate your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Robert_V12
1
ANDREW «LEFT» GOES ANDREW «UP» AS PALANTIR CELEBRATES 5YRS ANNIVAndrew Left from "Citron Research" made his name writing shrewd short-seller reports on companies he deemed troublesome. In mid-August, Left called high-flying Palantir "overvalued". Since that the stock turned down nearly 17% but resistently printed "Double Top" technical figure after. Now Left is excited about the bullish perspectives. Palantir shares have jumped more than 1,700% since the data analytics company opened on the New York Stock Exchange 5 (five) years ago on Spetember 30, 2020. During that time, revenue has roughly quadrupled as the company inked more deals with the U.S. government and benefitted from advancements in artificial intelligence. Palantir’s steep valuation and reliance on government contracts have raised concerns. The stock price has surged more than 1,700%, closing on Monday nearly at $180 for a market cap of over $430 billion. That puts it among the 20 most-valuable U.S. companies, and above tech stalwarts like Cisco and IBM. Last year, Palantir joined the S&P 500, replacing American Airlines NASDAQ:AAL . Quarterly revenue surpassed $1 billion for the first time last quarter, and is expected to reach $4.2 billion this year, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG, up almost sixfold from 2019. The company’s roster of customers grew from 125 in the first half of 2020 to 849 at the end of June. During that time, Palantir has added 1,500 full-time employees. CEO Alex Karp, who founded the company in 2003 alongside notable investors like Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale, was exerting optimism on day one of Palantir’s life on the public market. “We’ve reached a base where our company is very significant,” Karp, who holds a law degree from Stanford and PhD in neoclassical social theory from Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany, told in an interview on listing day. “Being in the public space will help us with our clients and help us grow.” In a report in August 2025, Citron Research’s Andrew Left, a noted above ex-short-seller, called Palantir “detached from fundamentals and analysis.” When compared to OpenAI’s recent $500 billion valuation, he said Palantir should be priced at $40, or less than one-quarter of its current price, if it was assessed the same revenue multiple as the artificial intelligence startup. “Karp and his team should be proud. But for investors, that’s where discipline kicks in,” Left wrote. “Comparison is the enemy of happiness, and when measured against true AI leaders, Palantir’s price already reflects success beyond its fundamentals.” Karp, who doesn’t shy away from a dispute, recently told detractors to “exit” if they “don’t like the price.” “We are going to be the most important software company in the world, and people will figure out what that’s valued over a long period of time,” Karp said on the day of the company’s NYSE debut. For now, i.e. over the past 5 years since IPO debut, Palantir is among Top 3 S&P500 index performers, alltogether with Supermicro NASDAQ:SMCI (#1 rank) and Nvidia shares NVDA (#3 rank). Over the past twelve months, Palantir stock has added nearly +350 %, and this is the 2nd return over all components, just after new kid on the block, Robinhood Markets NASDAQ:HOOD stock that entered S&P500 index earlier this year. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
NASDAQ:PLTR
by PandorraResearch
SMCI ready to test the top of the Triangle at $63.50.Supermicro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been trading within a 1-year Ascending Triangle but since August 06 it has been 'trapped' within its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA50, technically confirms the new Bullish Leg, targeting the top of the Ascending Triangle a $63.50. If it then closes a full 1W candle above it, we will have a technical bullish break-out, targeting the All Time High (ATH) at $123.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TradingShot
SMCI analysisEvery time price makes a fake breakdown below the 50 EMA, it quickly recovers and pushes higher. Historically, these moves have led price to test the purple resistance zone highlighted on the chart. Given the repeated pattern, I think the same dynamic could play out again, with price eventually making its way back to that resistance area. 🎯 Conclusion: Based on prior reactions to the 50 EMA, I expect SMCI to work its way toward the purple resistance zone. This is my professional view from the chart structure, though markets remain uncertain and no outcome is guaranteed. 👉 Stay tuned for more structured market insights — follow along for consistent expert-level analysis.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by abo0o