If oil 
USOIL were a stock, traders would be calling it a meme trade this week.
Parabolic moves, all-caps presidential commentary, and a global supply chain disruption gave crude quite the opening on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate kicked off trading up 30% at $120 a barrel, and Brent wasn't far behind at $119.
A few hours later, WTI was back near $100 and whipsawing hard.
💥 What Just Happened
The short version: US and Israeli strikes on Iran entered their second week, and Iran responded by tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil and LNG quietly flows every day.
This follows a record-breaking week for oil already. WTI surged 36% last week to $91 — its biggest weekly rise ever — and Brent hit $92.69. Both benchmarks were trading around $60 a barrel in early January.
So yes, we've gone from sixty to $120 in roughly two months. Here’s what the US President had to say on the matter.
"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!" — President Donald Trump, Truth Social
📉 Everything Else Is Not Having a Great Monday
While oil was busy defying gravity, stock futures were doing the opposite. Dow
DJI futures dropped more than 1,000 points — over 2% — while S&P 500 
SPX and Nasdaq 
IXIC futures each fell around 1.7%.
This comes on the heels of an ugly week: the Dow declined 3% for its worst weekly performance since April 2025, the S&P 500 shed 2%, and the Nasdaq closed lower by 1.2%. The Dow is now negative year-to-date. The vibes are, to put it technically, off.
Gold
XAUUSD is actually losing shine today with prices showing an intraday drop of 1.5%. It’s a surprising reaction for an asset that’s usually a headline-grabber during times of war jitters and gloomy global outlook.
🏦 What Goldman Sachs Is Quietly Terrified About
Goldman Sachs
GS — not a firm known for dramatic statements — warned late Friday that crude and refined products like gasoline and diesel could hit all-time highs if Hormuz flows remain depressed through March.
For context, the all-time high is Brent at $147.50 in 2008. Adjusted for inflation, that's $218 today. We're at $119. The math is uncomfortable.
Traders are increasingly pricing in a prolonged Hormuz closure, which would affect production from countries accounting for about a quarter of global crude supply. Iran has also begun curtailing production from some of the region's largest Middle Eastern producers — a decision that poured accelerant on an already lively fire.
📅 What's Coming This Week
Amid all the geopolitical drama, the economic calendar still has opinions. Wednesday brings the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for February — which, given surging gasoline prices, may land with a thud.
Friday delivers the Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditures index for January, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. If energy prices are feeding into either print, expect the interest rate conversation to get complicated in a hurry.
🧭 So, Now What?
The honest answer is: nobody knows, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either very brave or very wrong. What is clear is that this isn't a one-day spike to fade and forget.
A prolonged Hormuz disruption, a widening conflict, and a market that was already on edge going into the week — that's a combination that tends to keep volatility elevated for longer than anyone expects.
Watch Hormuz headlines above all else. Watch gasoline prices for how quickly this filters into consumer behavior. And watch the CPI print Wednesday — because if inflation is back, markets have a whole new problem layered on top of a very old one.
Off to you: How are you trading the oil surge? Long, short, or sitting it out? Share your views in the comments!
USOIL were a stock, traders would be calling it a meme trade this week.Parabolic moves, all-caps presidential commentary, and a global supply chain disruption gave crude quite the opening on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate kicked off trading up 30% at $120 a barrel, and Brent wasn't far behind at $119.
A few hours later, WTI was back near $100 and whipsawing hard.
💥 What Just Happened
The short version: US and Israeli strikes on Iran entered their second week, and Iran responded by tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil and LNG quietly flows every day.
This follows a record-breaking week for oil already. WTI surged 36% last week to $91 — its biggest weekly rise ever — and Brent hit $92.69. Both benchmarks were trading around $60 a barrel in early January.
So yes, we've gone from sixty to $120 in roughly two months. Here’s what the US President had to say on the matter.
"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!" — President Donald Trump, Truth Social
📉 Everything Else Is Not Having a Great Monday
While oil was busy defying gravity, stock futures were doing the opposite. Dow
DJI futures dropped more than 1,000 points — over 2% — while S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq IXIC futures each fell around 1.7%. This comes on the heels of an ugly week: the Dow declined 3% for its worst weekly performance since April 2025, the S&P 500 shed 2%, and the Nasdaq closed lower by 1.2%. The Dow is now negative year-to-date. The vibes are, to put it technically, off.
Gold
XAUUSD is actually losing shine today with prices showing an intraday drop of 1.5%. It’s a surprising reaction for an asset that’s usually a headline-grabber during times of war jitters and gloomy global outlook.🏦 What Goldman Sachs Is Quietly Terrified About
Goldman Sachs
GS — not a firm known for dramatic statements — warned late Friday that crude and refined products like gasoline and diesel could hit all-time highs if Hormuz flows remain depressed through March. For context, the all-time high is Brent at $147.50 in 2008. Adjusted for inflation, that's $218 today. We're at $119. The math is uncomfortable.
Traders are increasingly pricing in a prolonged Hormuz closure, which would affect production from countries accounting for about a quarter of global crude supply. Iran has also begun curtailing production from some of the region's largest Middle Eastern producers — a decision that poured accelerant on an already lively fire.
📅 What's Coming This Week
Amid all the geopolitical drama, the economic calendar still has opinions. Wednesday brings the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for February — which, given surging gasoline prices, may land with a thud.
Friday delivers the Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditures index for January, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. If energy prices are feeding into either print, expect the interest rate conversation to get complicated in a hurry.
🧭 So, Now What?
The honest answer is: nobody knows, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either very brave or very wrong. What is clear is that this isn't a one-day spike to fade and forget.
A prolonged Hormuz disruption, a widening conflict, and a market that was already on edge going into the week — that's a combination that tends to keep volatility elevated for longer than anyone expects.
Watch Hormuz headlines above all else. Watch gasoline prices for how quickly this filters into consumer behavior. And watch the CPI print Wednesday — because if inflation is back, markets have a whole new problem layered on top of a very old one.
Off to you: How are you trading the oil surge? Long, short, or sitting it out? Share your views in the comments!
Share TradingView with a friend:
tradingview.com/share-your-love/
Check out all #tradingviewtips
tradingview.com/ideas/tradingviewtips/?type=education
New Tools and Features:
tradingview.com/blog/en/
tradingview.com/share-your-love/
Check out all #tradingviewtips
tradingview.com/ideas/tradingviewtips/?type=education
New Tools and Features:
tradingview.com/blog/en/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Share TradingView with a friend:
tradingview.com/share-your-love/
Check out all #tradingviewtips
tradingview.com/ideas/tradingviewtips/?type=education
New Tools and Features:
tradingview.com/blog/en/
tradingview.com/share-your-love/
Check out all #tradingviewtips
tradingview.com/ideas/tradingviewtips/?type=education
New Tools and Features:
tradingview.com/blog/en/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.