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Super Micro Stock Under $20 After Brutal 33% Rout. Time to Buy?If only there was a way to track where things went wrong. The board of directors at Super Micro NASDAQ:SMCI got together one day in the boardroom and decided it’s a good idea to bring back the same executive who had already resigned once over an accounting scandal. They voted to hire him as a consultant and later promoted him to senior vice president. Then put him back on the board. That executive has now been arrested for allegedly smuggling $2.5 billion worth of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA AI chip servers to Chinese customers. And cost the company $6 billion in wiped out market cap on Friday. The Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX documentary practically writes itself. Super Micro Computer stock NASDAQ:SMCI dropped 33% on Friday after the news dropped during pre-market trading. With pre-market Monday prices at $19 (another 4% implied drop), it sits more than 84% below its all-time high of $123 from March 2024. The question the market is now chewing on: is this a buying opportunity, or is it a value trap? 🚨 What Actually Happened The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York charged Wally Liaw, a Super Micro co-founder and board member, along with a Taiwan-based company employee and a contractor named Willy Sun, with violating US export controls. The allegation is that the three conspired to ship Nvidia AI chip servers to Chinese customers, sidestepping the restrictions successive US administrations have placed on advanced chip exports to China. Liaw and Sun have been arrested. A third defendant, Steven Chang, a Super Micro sales manager based in Taiwan, "remains a fugitive," according to the Department of Justice. Super Micro itself is not named as a defendant in the indictment, which is a meaningful legal distinction, though the market on Friday was in no mood for nuance. 📜 Liaw's Remarkable Track Record Here is where the story earns its documentary potential. This is, remarkably, Wally Liaw's second act at Super Micro. He first resigned in 2018, alongside the company's finance chief, following an audit committee investigation that led Super Micro to restate its financial results. In 2020, the company paid $17.5 million to settle SEC allegations of widespread accounting violations. Liaw returned as a consultant in 2021, was promoted to senior vice president in 2022, and was reinstalled as a board member in late 2023. The due diligence conversation that preceded that board reappointment would be an interesting one to read. 📉 A Stock That Knows How to Fall Super Micro is no stranger to turbulence. In 2024, the company delayed its annual report filings following another accounting investigation, triggering a Nasdaq delisting warning . A short seller report alleging financial irregularities landed around the same time. Its auditor resigned . The stock spent most of the past two years absorbing one headline after another. Heading into Monday’s open, shares were lower by 50% over the prior twelve months. Under $20, it is trading at a fraction of the valuation that briefly made it one of the most talked-about AI infrastructure plays in the market. 🤔 So, Time to Buy? All things considered, Super Micro is a real business. It packages Nvidia's AI chips into servers and sells them to major US tech groups, sitting at a genuinely useful point in the AI infrastructure supply chain. The problem is there have been patterns. Accounting restatements, SEC settlements, auditor resignations, delisting warnings, and now a criminal indictment involving a co-founder. Each of these events, taken alone, might be survivable. Together, they describe a company with a structural governance problem that keeps expressing itself in new and creative ways. Value investors will point to the price. The stock, at $12.3 billion, is cheap relative to where it was. Risk-tolerant traders might see a bounce from oversold levels, a technical term for when selling has been so aggressive that a short-term recovery becomes statistically likely even without good news. At this point, the honest answer is that this is a speculation, not an investment, until Super Micro demonstrates that the board overhaul is real, the accounting is clean, and the next headline is something different than arrests or manhunt. At $20, the risk-reward is not obviously wrong. It’s a huge drop after all, with the stock ranking third on the “Biggest losers” board on Friday. The risk-reward is genuinely unknown, and those are very different things. Off to you : Are you looking to buy the huge dip at today’s opening bell? Or do you expect it to drop some more? Share your views in the comments!
NASDAQ:SMCI
by TradingView
21
Supermicro is a fascinating case right now.On one side, you have strong positioning in AI infrastructure—servers, GPU systems, and data center buildout. On the other, when you start looking at debt levels and coverage, the balance sheet tells a more nuanced story. This feels less like a clean trend and more like a second-cycle asset— where momentum is still present, but the structure underneath is starting to get tested. And that’s where things get dangerous. Because second cycles don’t move slowly— They tend to be shorter, sharper, and far more violent. Not necessarily a short conviction. but definitely a chart where positioning matters more than narrative.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by trader734567
SMCI Short — Gap-Down Breakdown, Dead-Cat Bounce Into Supply📉 SHORT SMCI @ $21.49 🎯 Target $19.50 🛑 Stop $22.50 ⚖️ R:R 1.97:1 | 🧠 Confidence 72% | ⏱️ Swing (1-2 weeks) --- 🔑 The Setup SMCI gapped down -30% on March 20 — from $30.80 to $22 — on 55 million shares 🤯 (vs 3M avg). That's not retail panic, that's institutional distribution 🏦💨 The bounce from $19.48 to $21.50 is a textbook dead-cat rally 🐱 back into the gap supply zone. Every dollar of this recovery is lower-volume, lower-conviction selling opportunity. 📊 Why Short Here 🏗️ Structure: - 📉 Multi-month downtrend from $50+ (Oct) to $20s — no sustained base anywhere - 💥 Gap-down on 15x average volume confirms structural breakdown - 🧱 $22-23 = prior breakdown candle body, now overhead resistance - 😴 Bounce stalling with fading volume — sellers reloading at the level 🔮 Options Flow: - 🐻 Net bearish sentiment: -$470K - 📌 Heavy put buying at $20 and $21 strikes across near-term expiries - 💰 Bearish premium $1.19M vs bullish $724K - 🌡️ IV at 90%+ — market pricing continued downside 🗺️ Key Levels 🧱 Resistance: $22.00-22.50 (gap supply zone, breakdown candle body) 👉 Entry: $21.49 (dead-cat bounce into resistance) 🛑 Stop: $22.50 (above gap supply — thesis invalidated) 🎯 Target: $19.50 (prior intraday low, room to extend) 🛟 Support: $19.48 (Mar 23 flush low) 💡 The Trade Fading the bounce at resistance in a confirmed downtrend ⬇️ The massive gap-down volume created a wall of overhead supply 🧱 that should cap any recovery attempts. If $22.50 holds as resistance, gravity takes over 🪂 🛑 Invalidation: Close above $22.50 — that would mean the gap is being reclaimed and the breakdown thesis is wrong ❌ 🎯 Target logic: $19.50 is the prior intraday low. If momentum continues, $18 and $16 are the next structural supports from the longer-term chart 📏
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by ivvix
3/20/26 - $smci - canary (and some mkt thoughts)3/20/26 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI canary - there's more here than meets the all seeing eye - you mean to tell me one of nvidia's top 5 customers was playing this game and (we all knew it) and all of a sudden one day this guy gets busted and everyone throws up their hands? - check out prior comments. this was well known for at LEAST a year - bad timing too. right now i think the market might look to "blame" ai infra for over build and for recent weakness - but let's face it, we're long in the business cycle tooth - 10% of people account for >50% of spending - rates are high and ripping higher - a human sac. ritual aka "war" is destroying lives and morale. grotesque. always is. never won't be. - and so the air comes out from where it went most. - keeping a level head here is most important, avoid the obvious traps (like this one) is level 1 - finding parking spots is level 2 and managing risk and reward with proper sizing is level 3 - right now i remain about 50% cash - and of the other 50% deployed, half of this (so 25%) is well hedged earning 5-10% monthly income.. NASDAQ:SBET , NYSE:NU , NASDAQ:MELI , NASDAQ:WYFI , NYSE:SE and a few others they're well hedged (selling upside) - tons of opportunities emerging - a water fall here will be interesting but mkt rarely makes it that obvious. i try not to guess, but hard to go into a weekend w/ px action like this and not have a gnarly next week - we will bid sooner than later, but don't get too comfy. might be fun to swing mon/ tue for ST sake, but the goal here is picking up value with reasonable downside and asymmetric upside - stay nimble. headline driven market. we're only 3 months into mid term year with the above macro and majority of young guns haven't seen a business cycle... that's the scary part. - no the sky isn't falling. yes this is normal. "yes" we are probably yet to find a true lower low. you'll know it. it will be an event, everyone will be sufficiently rekt. time is the biggest wrecking ball of all. so maintain your emotions. don't be too hard on yourself. this is the hard part. survive this and we'll have another few great years. but you need lives and ammo to play the survival game in the backyard of the ... i digress. - be well <3 V
NASDAQ:SMCI
by VROCKSTAR
2
Supermicro (SMCI)Shares of Supermicro (SMCI) experienced a dramatic decline, tumbling by as much as 28 percent during trading on Friday. The sharp sell-off followed the unsealing of a federal indictment, which revealed that U.S. prosecutors had formally charged two senior employees and an external contractor associated with the company. The charges stem from allegations that the individuals orchestrated a scheme to smuggle servers equipped with advanced Nvidia (NVDA) chips to China, directly contravening U.S. export control regulations established to restrict the transfer of sensitive technology to adversarial nations. The indictment, brought forth by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, names Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw, a co-founder of Supermicro who holds U.S. citizenship and currently serves on the company’s board of directors as well as senior vice president of business development. Also charged are Ruei-Tsang "Steven" Chang, a sales manager based in Taiwan, and Ting-Wei "Willy" Sun, a contractor whom authorities characterized as a “fixer” due to his alleged role in facilitating the transactions. According to prosecutors, the three individuals were central figures in a complex operation that successfully routed approximately $2.5 billion worth of American-made servers to Chinese entities between 2024 and 2025. Court documents further detail the alleged methodology behind the operation. The defendants are accused of selling the advanced artificial intelligence server technology to an intermediary company located in Southeast Asia, fully aware that the ultimate destination for the equipment was China, which the U.S. designates as a strategic adversary. To circumvent inspection protocols, they are said to have fabricated shipping documents and staged thousands of so-called “dummy” servers—functionally inert replicas intended to mimic the genuine products—which were presented for official review at the Southeast Asian location. Meanwhile, the actual, fully functional servers were unlawfully redirected and forwarded to their intended recipients in China. In response to the unfolding legal situation, Supermicro issued a statement confirming that it has placed the two implicated employees on administrative leave effective immediately and has terminated its business relationship with the contractor involved. Supermicro, which is headquartered in California, occupies a critical position in the artificial intelligence hardware supply chain as a primary assembler of AI servers that utilize Nvidia’s high-performance components. According to data from Bloomberg, the company accounts for roughly 9 percent of the chipmaker’s total revenue, underscoring its significant role in the AI ecosystem. The company’s stock had seen a substantial surge throughout 2024, riding a wave of unprecedented demand for AI infrastructure. However, in more recent months, the share price has faced considerable downward pressure, culminating in a 42 percent decline over the past year as the company has grappled with a series of escalating controversies. This latest legal development adds to a growing list of challenges for Supermicro. During the summer of 2024, the prominent short-selling firm Hindenburg Research published a scathing report that accused the company of flouting export control laws and flagged serious accounting irregularities. In the aftermath of those allegations, Supermicro faced significant operational disruptions, including delays in filing its quarterly and annual reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The situation was further exacerbated by the resignation of the company’s independent accounting firm, which raised concerns about the reliability of its financial disclosures. These events pushed the company to the brink of being delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange, though it ultimately managed to secure compliance and narrowly avoid such an outcome.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by KalaGhazi
2
Super Micro (SMCI) – 12% After-Hours Drop on DOJ Export ChargesSMCI dropped nearly 12% to ~$27.17 in after-hours after the DOJ unsealed charges alleging a multi-year scheme to illegally divert ~$2.5B in AI servers (with restricted GPUs) to China, violating US export controls. Key points: - Senior VP/board member Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw + 2 others indicted - Servers allegedly repackaged/rerouted via Southeast Asia intermediary to obscure destination - SMCI placed 2 employees on leave, terminated contractor - Company has prior history (2024 accounting probe, delisting warning, auditor resignation) Technical note: Price plunged below recent $30–$31 support. Next levels to watch: $25–$26 downside if momentum continues; any bounce needs volume above $30 to show stabilization. High-risk, headline-driven setup. Volatility will remain extreme until more clarity from DOJ/court/company response.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by DEXWireNews
SMCI building pressure for months… this could be the triggerSMCI has been stuck in this range for the last ~117 days, but the structure is starting to shift. Price has been printing higher lows, which usually means accumulation instead of continuation lower. On top of that, momentum on the 4H is picking up and money flow is starting to turn, so you can feel pressure building under the range. The key level here is the 41–42 zone. There’s a lot confluence sitting there: • stacked imbalances • naked POC • anchored VWAPs from the swing highs So if price pushes through that area, it’s not just a random breakout… it’s clearing a heavy confluence zone. If that happens, there’s room for a move of roughly 30%+ to the upside. For now it’s still inside the range, but the way it’s holding and building higher lows… looks like it’s getting ready. Options idea (not financial advice): Looking at calls into a breakout: • $35.5 strike – 03/27/25 – around $0.26 • $39 strike – 03/27/25 – around $0.10 Key level to watch: 41–42.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Turttle_Trader
SMCI Weekly Rebound Setup (1W)SMCI has pulled back into a key higher-timeframe demand zone, where price has shown repeated reactions and absorption of sell-side pressure. After a long corrective phase, the weekly chart is now forming a potential base, suggesting the possibility of a broader recovery leg toward overhead inefficiencies. Price is currently sitting at CMP, right on top of a structural support cluster that has historically launched strong rallies. With volatility compressing and wicks showing buyer defense, SMCI may be preparing for a macro rebound. 🔹 Entry: CMP 🔹 Target (TP): 69.65 🔹 Stop-Loss (SL): 22.95 (stop adding money here and wait) This setup targets a move back toward the major weekly imbalance above, aligning with prior distribution structure and unfilled liquidity. A weekly close above 55–56 would strengthen the bullish case, potentially accelerating the move into the 70+ zone. A breakdown below 22.95 would invalidate the idea and imply continuation of the larger downtrend. Trade Management Partial profits can be taken as price approaches 55–56, the first significant weekly resistance. Momentum confirmation: a strong weekly close above 56 opens room for continuation toward 70+. Hard invalidation: Weekly close below 22.95. ⚠️ Financial Disclaimer : Not financial advice. Just chart art. If you go long because the lines look optimistic, SMCI may choose violence instead. Always DYOR and protect your capital.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by evolutionqc
Super Micro Hammers $31 Floor – Bulls Stepping InNASDAQ:SMCI trades at ~$31.05 (up +0.52% intraday on 1H chart), showing tentative stabilization after a brutal multi-month decline. The stock exploded from mid-2025 levels to a peak near $58.78 in late 2025 on explosive AI server demand, before a sharp correction dropped it to lows around $27.75 in early 2026. Key observations: - Strong uptrend from Aug–Nov 2025 reversed into a clear downtrend with lower highs/lows through Feb–Mar 2026. - Recent price action has formed a tight consolidation band around $30–$32 with higher lows emerging. - Momentum neutral; holding just above the 50-period MA with moderate volume. Analytical buyer outlook: - Upside trigger: Break $32–$33 on volume — targets $35–$38 retest. - Support to defend: $30–$31 zone; break risks slide to $27.75–$28. Verdict: Correction appears mature — early signs of base-building. Buyers defending $31 zone. Constructive setup if $33 clears; bias turning neutral-positive.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by DEXWireNews
5
SMCI 4-month consolidation could be a bottom.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been ranging for exactly the past 4 months (since the November 17 2025 candle), when it broke below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This consolidation is no technical accident as it is taking place on Support 1 (27.50), the April 07 2025 Low and could be an indication of a medium-term bottom. To confirm that however, it needs to break above its 1W MA200 again but on the bullish side, it is already trading above the 1W RSI MA (similar to December 2024 - January 2025) and just completed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross (similar to December 09 2024). As a result, as long as Support 1 holds, it is likely to see a rally towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the previous Lower High) at $52.00. A weekly closing however below Support 1, eyes Support 2 at $17.25. The price is currently close enough to Support 1 to allow solid Risk/ Reward and SL placements on this strategy. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCI
by TradingShot
1
SMCI Near $30 Support: Traders Positioning for a $33 Push:Current Price: 30.75 Direction: LONG Confidence level: 62%(Several professional traders consistently emphasize AI-server leadership and long-term demand while price holds near a key support zone; social data is lighter, keeping confidence moderate rather than high.) Targets Target 1: 32.10 Target 2: 32.90 Stop Levels Stop 1: 29.70 Stop 2: 28.80 Wisdom of Professional Traders: This analysis brings together what several professional traders and market experts are saying about SMCI. By combining their collective views with real‑time market chatter and current news, I’m focusing on where consensus is building. The crowd wisdom here leans toward upside, especially tied to AI‑server demand, even though the stock hasn’t reacted aggressively yet. Key Insights: Here’s what’s really driving this setup. Multiple professional traders highlighted that Super Micro Computer remains a leader in AI‑optimized servers, controlling a meaningful share of the market. Despite strong industry news from Oracle and Nebius, SMCI didn’t spike and actually pulled back, which traders interpret as delayed price recognition rather than fundamental weakness. Several traders explicitly framed SMCI as a “must‑buy” tied to expanding data‑center buildouts. What stands out is the disconnect between fundamentals and recent price action. Traders repeatedly pointed out that if hyperscalers and AI data‑center operators are spending billions, SMCI is directly in the supply chain. That keeps long‑side conviction intact, especially with price sitting just above a widely watched support area around $30. Recent Performance: SMCI slipped roughly 4% last week while peers tied to AI infrastructure caught bids. Price is now hovering in the low $30s after topping much higher earlier in the year. This pullback has cooled momentum, but it’s also brought the stock back into a zone where traders are willing to step in rather than chase strength. Expert Analysis: When I look at the trader commentary as a whole, the message is consistent: the business outlook looks stronger than the chart suggests. Several traders emphasized SMCI’s reaffirmed aggressive revenue targets and its position as a go‑to server provider for large AI builds. Technically, traders are watching the $29.70–$30.00 area as a line in the sand, with upside opening quickly if price clears the low‑$32 range. There’s acknowledgment of short‑term hesitation, but not a shift in conviction. The tone from traders is more “this is lagging and needs time” rather than “this is broken.” News Impact: Recent earnings strength, a new multi‑billion‑dollar credit facility, and continued ties to NVIDIA’s AI roadmap all support the bullish case. The market didn’t immediately reward the news, which actually increases the appeal for traders looking for catch‑up moves. Upcoming commentary around AI backlog and data‑center orders could act as the spark. Trading Recommendation: Here’s my take. With SMCI holding near support and professional traders staying constructive, I favor a LONG position this week. I’m looking for a move toward $32.10 first, with a stretch to $32.90 if momentum picks up. Risk is clearly defined below $29.70, and I’d step aside if $28.80 fails. Position size should stay moderate given mixed short‑term signals, but the risk‑reward favors upside from here.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
38-Bar Imminent Squeeze, Floor Percentile, Volume FallingPrice is at 32.65 with no futures market. The bias reads 75.5% bull against 24.5% bear across 112 signals. Clarity at 47% and phase is Deep. System tags this Recovered with a -6.6% retrace absorbed and 11.2% bounce target at 1.7x. The recovery confirmation is in place. The setup that matters most here is not the bias or the bounce target — it is the squeeze. MTF scoring is 40 green to 13 red. EMA at 6:1 is near-unanimous. Candle is the standout layer at 11:3, the strongest candle reading in today's equity series. C>T at 13:1 is exceptional — cross-timeframe trend alignment is near-total, second only to ROST. Engulf at 4:0. Ichi TK at 5:8 is the one soft layer, slightly bear-leaning on trend confirmation, which is the internal friction point. SS/DD at 6:4 shows a mild supply lean. Star at 1:0 and Pat Tot at 1:0 are clean. The counter-signal picture is light — Ichi TK is the only layer with meaningful bear weight. The squeeze is IMMINENT after 38 bars. That is the longest squeeze duration of any setup in this entire series. BW at 16.6% is still compressed. Momentum is bull. S.Mom is converging at 254.3% — the highest squeeze momentum convergence reading of the day across all setups. A 38-bar squeeze with 254% momentum convergence is an extreme coiling event. When compression runs this long, the release tends to be proportional to the duration. Direction remains the question but the bull momentum flip inside the squeeze aligns with the 75.5% signal bias. Volume is the complicating factor. Vol Z at -0.29 is Steady — below average. Dollar volume at 1.03B is quiet. Direction is Neutral. Bull:Bear Z reads 0.57 against -0.83 — a mild bear lean in a quiet market. Momentum is at exactly 0, Falling. OBV Z at -0.64 is Outflow with a declining arrow. Falling volume momentum into an imminent squeeze is a two-sided read — it can mean the squeeze fires on low volume and fades quickly, or it can mean the compression is nearly complete and a volume surge accompanies the breakout. The 38-bar duration makes the latter more probable historically. Price percentile at 13.5% near the floor of the 28.27 to 60.71 range. SMCI is deep in the lower quartile of its historical range with the longest active squeeze in today's series, 254% momentum convergence, candle dominance at 11:3, and C>T at 13:1. The combination of floor percentile and extreme squeeze duration is the core of this setup. Bull scenario: 38-bar squeeze resolves upward, S.Mom convergence at 254% triggers a volume surge, candle structure at 11:3 sustains, and Ichi TK bear lean at 5:8 flips. Price targets the 11.2% bounce with room to extend given the floor percentile and deep retrace already absorbed. The squeeze duration alone makes this the highest-potential-energy setup in today's equity series. Danger scenario: OBV outflow continues, volume fails to materialize on the breakout attempt, Ichi TK 5:8 bear lean asserts as the leading signal, and the squeeze fires downward. A 38-bar failed squeeze at the 13.5% percentile with outflow would confirm distribution and open the 28.27 range low. The low multiplier at 1.7x already reflects that uncertainty. The 38-bar imminent squeeze at the floor is the setup. Everything else is context. Watch for volume to arrive when BW starts expanding — that is the confirmation signal. A squeeze this long firing on no volume is a warning. The same squeeze firing with a volume Z surge above 1.0 is the entry signal the structure has been building toward.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by stingrayea
SMCI Weekly Update – Short Put Plan Recap (2/20/2026 Exp.) Position: Short $27.50 Put Expiration: 2/20/2026 Entry Date: 2/13/2026 Premium Collected: $0.25 Effective Cost Basis if Assigned: ~$27.26 📊 Market Structure SMCI finished the week down 12.92%, closing near the lower portion of its defined range. Range remains intact: Support (Weekly & Daily): $29 Resistance (Daily): $34.03 Resistance (Weekly): $35.60 Despite the large red candle, volume decreased compared to the prior green week. This suggests selling pressure, but not aggressive institutional liquidation. RSI moved from 45.78 to 41.29—weakening but not oversold. At this time, the structure still reflects a range retest—not a confirmed breakdown. 🎯 Why the $27.50 Strike? The strike was selected: Below is defined weekly support Below the recent panic wick zone ~10% below entry price With only 7 DTE to maximize theta decay This is a probability income trade, not a directional bet. 📉 Distance to Strike Current close: ~$30.54 Strike: $27.50 Price would need to fall another ~9.83% in four trading days to threaten the strike. The cushion remains intact. 🔒 Management Plan No adjustment is needed at this time. However, a structured contingency plan is in place: If $29 Support Holds Let theta decay work. Close at 60–70% profit target. If $29 Breaks with Follow-Through & Volume Expansion Consider rolling down and out to maintain probability. OR accept the assignment if the structure stabilizes near $27–28. If Assigned Effective basis ~$27.26. Transition to the covered call strategy above the resistance. Final Note As long as weekly support holds, the range remains intact. We monitor $29 closely next week.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by jackjweddle
SMCI (Super Micro Computer) - Buy The Dip!!!!!!! 🚨 SMCI – Potential Golden Opportunity at Extreme Value Levels 🚨 SMCI just delivered strong earnings, yet the stock is trading at levels that historically represent deep value zones. On my chart, we’re seeing three major signals align: • Price sitting right on the 300-day moving average, a level institutions often defend. • Oscillators flashing extreme oversold conditions, meaning selling pressure may be exhausted. • Fundamentals still strong, and SMCI remains a key infrastructure player in the AI boom, supplying hardware powering data centers and AI expansion worldwide. In my view, this isn’t just another tech stock, it’s one of the backbone companies enabling AI growth, and markets often overcorrect before reversing. When strong companies get oversold, patient investors tend to get rewarded. Now, this doesn’t mean price instantly rockets higher. Volatility is normal. But risk-reward looks increasingly attractive at these levels, especially for those thinking beyond short-term noise. ⚠️ As always, this is just my personal analysis and opinion, not financial advice. Do your own research, read your chart and manage your risk responsibly. But from where I sit… this chart is currently screaming: "Buy The Dip!!!!"
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TraderFromTheNorth
2
SMCI SYSTEM REBOOT<>The Signal: CRITICAL ALERT. SMCI just printed a volume candle for the history books. Daily volume hit 115 Million shares—nearly 3x the average (42M). The Diagnosis: This is pure Institutional Capitulation turning into Accumulation. Retail traders do not move 100M shares in a single session. The "Smart Money" stepped in at the $28 lows to defend the mainframe. The Reality: The massive green candle (+13%) on expanding volume confirms a hard floor has been set at $29. The trend has officially shifted from "Crash" to "Recovery." ALGORITHMIC FRONTIER (The Resistance) Current Ceiling: $34.40 (Daily EMA 20). The Barrier: We are currently pinging the underside of the Daily EMA 20. This is the first major line of algorithmic defence. The Pivot: <>Support: We successfully reclaimed the 4H EMA 50 ($31.04) and 4H EMA 20 ($31.46). The short-term structure is now bullish. <>Target: A Daily close above $34.40 breaks the bearish code and opens a path to fill the "Cloud Gap" toward $40.35 (Daily EMA 50). MOMENTUM GAUGE (The Engine) Status: OVERCLOCKED. The Reading: Daily RSI: Spiked vertically from 43 to 60.26. 4H RSI: 63.34. Meaning: Momentum has shifted violently to the upside. We are running hot, but not yet "Overbought" (>70). There is still plenty of CPU cycle left to push higher before we hit thermal throttling. PHANTOMS VERDICT The chart shows a textbook "V-Shape" ignition. The volume confirms the reversal is legitimate. Bullish Case: A breakout above $34.40 triggers a squeeze to $40.00+. Bearish Case: Rejection here retests the new support cluster at $31.50. Strategic Action: Aggressive: Accumulate on dips to $31.50 - $32.00 (Support Defence). Breakout: Add leverage on a confirmed close above $34.50. Target: $40.00 - $41.50. Trade Safe. 👻
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by PHANT0M
SMCI Bullish DivergenceAfter a strong earnings announcement yesterday and very positive forward guidance, we are officially placing SMCI on a Buy rating. Over the past few weeks, the stock has been forming a bullish divergence, with Wave C complete and price trending lower while both MACD and RSI are making higher highs, a clear sign of weakening downside momentum. We believe this is the start of a new impulse and if price manages to break above the Value Area Low (VAL) of the VRVP, we believe it could make a fast move toward the $40 level. At that point, we will reassess price action for the next move and potentially higher targets. Safe trading! 🚀 If you enjoyed this post and found it helpful for your trades, please follow us and boost our idea.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Vasileios_Kairaktidis