The gold market enters the new week in a characteristic state of repricing after strong fluctuations, as the entire previous structure has been broken and capital is seeking a balance point. The macro context remains tug-of-war: growth shows signs of slowing but inflation has not truly cooled, making monetary policy expectations unpredictable. This is not a favorable environment for a sustainable upward trend, but an ideal condition for strong fluctuations – liquidity sweeps – and market psychology traps.
On the D1 frame, after a strong breakdown breaking the long-term upward trendline, gold has rebounded but was quickly blocked at the confluence zones of Fibo 0.5–0.618 and FVG above. This indicates that the recent increase has not been accumulative, but mainly a pullback in a larger downtrend. The weekly close with a slight reclaim above the short-term demand zone is not enough to confirm a reversal, but is likely just a rebalancing act before continuing to move.
This week, the important price zone to watch is 4750–4900, where the old demand, trendline, and medium-term Fibonacci levels converge. This will be the decisive area to see if the market continues to be rejected to maintain the downtrend, or can extend the rebound deeper. If the price cannot hold above this zone and shows signs of weakening, the main scenario remains a continuation down to the 4300–4100 area, where large liquidity is concentrated and has not been fully tested.
Conversely, if the capital is strong enough to keep the price above the 4900 zone and create a higher low structure on D1, the market may extend the rebound to higher zones around 5100–5300. However, it should be emphasized that in the current context, such increases should still be viewed as recovery in a downtrend, until clear accumulation over time appears.
Overall, gold is still in a phase where a long-term bottom has not formed. A real bottom does not come from a strong bounce, but from a long enough accumulation process to completely break market expectation psychology. Currently, that factor has not appeared, and capital still tends to take advantage of rebounds to distribute. Therefore, the week of 30/03–03/04 is likely to continue being a phase of liquidity testing and redefining the main direction, with a bias towards a downward scenario if important resistance zones are not conquered.
LucasGrayTrading
On the D1 frame, after a strong breakdown breaking the long-term upward trendline, gold has rebounded but was quickly blocked at the confluence zones of Fibo 0.5–0.618 and FVG above. This indicates that the recent increase has not been accumulative, but mainly a pullback in a larger downtrend. The weekly close with a slight reclaim above the short-term demand zone is not enough to confirm a reversal, but is likely just a rebalancing act before continuing to move.
This week, the important price zone to watch is 4750–4900, where the old demand, trendline, and medium-term Fibonacci levels converge. This will be the decisive area to see if the market continues to be rejected to maintain the downtrend, or can extend the rebound deeper. If the price cannot hold above this zone and shows signs of weakening, the main scenario remains a continuation down to the 4300–4100 area, where large liquidity is concentrated and has not been fully tested.
Conversely, if the capital is strong enough to keep the price above the 4900 zone and create a higher low structure on D1, the market may extend the rebound to higher zones around 5100–5300. However, it should be emphasized that in the current context, such increases should still be viewed as recovery in a downtrend, until clear accumulation over time appears.
Overall, gold is still in a phase where a long-term bottom has not formed. A real bottom does not come from a strong bounce, but from a long enough accumulation process to completely break market expectation psychology. Currently, that factor has not appeared, and capital still tends to take advantage of rebounds to distribute. Therefore, the week of 30/03–03/04 is likely to continue being a phase of liquidity testing and redefining the main direction, with a bias towards a downward scenario if important resistance zones are not conquered.
LucasGrayTrading
Trade active
The price is moving in line with previous assessments as it enters the rebalancing zone after a sharp decline. Instead of continuing the trend immediately, the market is forming a sideways state – absorbing liquidity, reflecting the process of large capital flows readjusting their positions.The current rebound around 4500–4550 (Fibo 0.382 + demand + FVG) is not strong enough to break the downtrend structure, mainly serving as a technical rebound. The continuous price reaction in this area indicates that the market is "building range" rather than creating a new trend.
In this context, the 4750–4900 area (Fibo 0.5–0.618 + FVG + trendline) remains the decisive zone if the price extends the rebound. This area is still a priority for observing reactions to determine whether the market will shift to a deeper recovery or continue to be rejected.
Below, the 4300–4100 area remains a large liquidity zone that has not been fully exploited and will be the target if the market breaks the current balance state downward.
Conclusion:
The market is in a rebalancing phase after strong fluctuations, with no clear reversal signals yet. During this period, it is important to prioritize observing reactions at key levels, as these are often the precursors to a strong subsequent break – rather than trying to guess the bottom when the capital flow has not yet completed the filtering process.
Trade closed: target reached
The price has had its first reaction in line with the scenario when approaching the Demand + FVG zone, creating a strong sell force of ~650 pips from the 45xx area back to the 45xx zone.This is a signal confirming that the supply zone above is still controlling the cash flow, and the recent recovery is mainly a redistribution rather than a trend reversal.
Currently:
The price is moving away from the reaction zone and tends to return to mid-range
If it cannot hold the 4500–4520 zone → high possibility of continuing to break down to support 43xx
Conversely, if there is a recovery → the Demand + FVG zone above is still a key sell
Conclusion:
The 650 pip reaction shows that the market is still operating in the sell the rally direction. Priority is to wait for a recovery – confirmation – continuation of the downtrend.
Note
Although the first reaction phase has appeared at the Demand + FVG zone, strong buying pressure helps the daily candle close firmly, indicating that capital flow is still participating in the balancing recovery phase.The current structure leans towards the scenario:
Continued recovery to the upper liquidity zones
Before confirming whether this is a reversal or just a pullback in a major downtrend
Note:
The daily candle is strong but not enough to confirm a reversal → still need to monitor reactions at the upper supply zones.
The monthly candle closing on 03/31 will be the key to identifying major capital flow – monitor to prepare for a detailed plan at the start of the new month.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.