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Nikkei225 Count Update – Triangle Forming in Wave 2Nikkei225 Elliott Wave Count Update No change to the downward impulse scenario starting from the 2/26 high. However, the move from the 3/23 low — which I previously interpreted as a flat C wave in 5-wave structure — has been updated. I now see a contracting triangle in progress, with a high probability of continued sideways/choppy action with up-and-down swings. (If it breaks above 54,375, the flat scenario will come back into play.) Sideways movement inside the triangle is expected to continue until around April 6–7, after which the impulse wave 3 decline should begin. This week’s bias & position Bullish ⤴️ Invalidation: Break below 50,633 ※ In that case it would mean a zigzag is still in progress from the 2/26 high, with the B wave being the triangle and C wave decline starting. However, I consider this possibility to be extremely low. #Nikkei225 #ElliottWave
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDLong
by LIVERMORE333
JPN225 H1 | Falling Towards Pullback SupportBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price fall towards our buy entry level at 52,842.04, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our stop loss is set at 51,787.73, which is a pullback support. Our take profit is set at 54,207.23, which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited fxcm.com Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
FX:JPN225Long
by FXCM
Nikkei: Heavy tape, 51000 under threat51000 is the line in the sand for Nikkei bulls. Defend it, or risk enticing more participants into the unwind already seen. We’ve seen multiple bearish break attempts in March, all of which have failed. But the telling thing is the string of lower highs from bounces, sequentially failing around the 50DMA and, more recently, ahead of 54000. The index looks heavy. RSI (14) is yet to set lower lows but remains below 50, indicating downside pressure remains in the ascendancy, a signal backed up by MACD which is motoring lower in negative territory. Risks are therefore tilted to the downside, but they are unlikely to be acted upon until we see a definitive break, ideally accompanied by a close. Otherwise, it risks being just another failed break, potentially paving the way for a retest of sellers parked above 54000. A sustained break of 51000 would allow for a stop to be placed above the level for protection, targeting the intersection of 48500 support and the 200DMA. From a fundamental perspective, the longer the Iran war disrupts energy supply and keeps prices elevated, the greater the downside risk to Japanese corporate earnings, especially industrial names who derive a substantial share of revenues from offshore. Good luck! DS
FOREXCOM:JP225Short
by FOREX.com
Nikkei continues to show weakness around the 51k levelThe Japanese index has started to show weakness over the last three trading sessions, posting a decline of more than 5% in the short term and reflecting a relevant bearish bias in the chart. For now, selling pressure appears to have re-established itself, partly due to the increase in risk sentiment across markets, which has reduced appetite for risk assets such as the Nikkei. Additionally, a neutral stance from the Bank of Japan limits expectations for rate cuts, strengthening the bond market and reducing the attractiveness of Japanese equities. If these factors persist, a more consistent selling pressure could continue to dominate in the short term. Bearish move becomes more relevant: Over recent sessions, Nikkei price action has started to break below the long-term upward trendline that had been in place for several months. If the bearish bias continues to consolidate, this could lead to the formation of a new short-term downtrend, potentially dominating price action in the coming sessions. However, it is important to note that the price still faces a key resistance area, which could trigger short-term corrective moves. RSI: The RSI remains below the 50 level, suggesting that selling momentum continues to dominate over the past 14 sessions. If this behavior persists, it could reinforce a consistent bearish pressure in the short term. MACD: A similar scenario is observed in the MACD, with the histogram remaining below the zero line, indicating that short-term moving average momentum is still in bearish territory. This supports the view that selling pressure could remain dominant. Key levels to watch: 54,695 – Key resistance level, aligned with the 50-period simple moving average. Moves toward this area could lead to a sideways scenario if no clear direction emerges. 51,030 – Near-term support, aligned with recent lows. A break below this level could reinforce a dominant bearish bias in the short term. 48,433 – Key support, aligned with the 200-period moving average. A sustained break below this level could trigger a more structured downtrend in the coming weeks. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:JP225
by FOREX.com
Nikkei 225 Count Update – Bullish in Flat (C) of Wave 2Nikkei225 Count Update Touched the invalidation level at 50,633 → temporarily shifted to neutral. However, converted to long-only in the 50,800 zone. Now viewing the large downward impulse wave 2 as forming a double three (zigzag + flat), with the flat’s (C) currently in progress. Bias & Position Bullish Main Target 54,375 Invalidation Break below 50,467 (3/30 low) invalidates the flat (C). (Downside alert starts at 50,619) #Nikkei225 #JAPAN225CFD #ElliottWave
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDLong
by LIVERMORE333
Nikkei225 Wave 2: Flat (B) Done → Target 55,747Nikkei225 (JAPAN225CFD) Updated the wave count after last night's US indices move. From the Feb 26 high (60,050) to the Mar 9 low (51,174), a clean downward Impulse has completed perfectly. I'm counting this as major Wave 1. Currently, Wave 2 correction is in progress. In detail, it's forming a Flat correction structure. (Now shifting from completed flat (B) to upward Wave (C)) Note: There may still be some wiggling around the yellow circle near 51,000 on Monday open, but I expect an immediate rebound after that. Near-term focus: How far will the retracement go? Main target: Around the end of flat Wave (A) at 55,747. Additionally, the Fib 0.382 (around 54,400) ~ 0.618 (around 56,600) zone is also key. If it extends further, up to 0.786 (around 58,100) is in play. Bigger picture: Once Wave 2 completes, expect continuation lower in Waves 3-4-5. Invalidation only above 59,381. My current position is short with a long hedge. Depending on next week's price action, I plan to either: ① Add to longs while staying hedged, or ② Take profit on the short side. #Nikkei225 #Nikkei #ElliottWave #TradingView
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDLong
by LIVERMORE333
#JP225 4H Final Wave V Loading – Bullish Impulse Nearing CompletFOREXCOM:JP225 #JP225 4H Final Wave V Loading – Bullish Impulse Nearing Completion! 📈🇯🇵 Japanese Stock Index #JP225 🇯🇵 — Elliott Wave outlook on the 4-hour timeframe Is the fifth wave still in play? 🚀 One possible scenario suggests that a bullish impulsive wave has already formed through waves I–IV, with price now advancing in the final sub-waves of wave V of a larger-degree bullish structure. The current leg higher appears to be developing as wave V, potentially extending toward the 1.000–1.618 projection zone of wave I, ideally clustering around 60,124 – 62,000+ as the ultimate target for this advance. 💡 Key observations: - Wave IV has taken the form of a complex corrective pattern (W-X-Y), finding support near the 0.618 retracement and the lower channel boundary. - The breakout above the wave III high and the retest of previous resistance-turned-support reinforce the bullish momentum. 🎯 If price continues to respect the channel and breaks above recent swing highs with conviction, wave V could deliver one final push toward the projected targets before a larger-degree correction begins. ⚠️ A reversal from the upper target zone would likely initiate wave (2) or (A) of a deeper pullback, with initial downside objectives projected between 57,676 – 54,974 (0.618 retracement of the entire advance). A break below 53,577 would raise the probability of a more significant correction. 📊 Monitoring price action near the upper boundary remains essential to confirm whether wave V completes or extends further. #JP225 #Nikkei225 #Nikkei #JapanStocks #ElliottWave #BullishImpulse #SmartWedgeTrader #TradingView #WaveAnalysis #StockMarket #AsianMarkets #ToTheMoon
FOREXCOM:JP225Long
by SmartWedgeTrader
Nikkei begins to break its long-term trendlineOver the past few trading sessions, Nikkei price action has started to show a neutral to slightly bearish bias, with an average move of around 1.2% over the last two sessions. For now, indecision has remained consistent as the market approaches the Bank of Japan’s policy decision later today. If the central bank begins to signal short-term inflationary pressures and opens the door to a more aggressive policy outlook, this may not support a recovery in confidence for the index. In that scenario, a more sustained weakness could start to gain relevance in the coming sessions. Uptrend at risk: Although the index has maintained a consistent bullish structure over recent months—leading to the formation of a long-term upward trendline—recent sessions have started to show notable weakness. Price action is now beginning to test this trendline. If a more consistent bearish bias develops in the short term, this could lead to a break of the bullish structure, potentially marking a significant structural shift and opening the door to stronger selling pressure in the coming sessions. RSI: The RSI indicator remains close to the 50 neutral level, suggesting a balance between buying and selling momentum. This points to a phase of indecision, which could evolve into a more defined neutral environment if the behavior persists. MACD: The MACD histogram shows a similar pattern, gradually moving toward the zero line, reflecting a balance in short-term moving averages. This supports the idea of a low-directionality environment in the short term. Key levels to watch: 59,511 – Key resistance: Level aligned with recent highs and the main upside barrier in the short term. A move back toward or above this level could re-establish a bullish bias and support a continuation of the uptrend. 54,695 – Neutral zone: Level aligned with the 50-period moving average, acting as a recent equilibrium zone. Price movements around this level could reinforce a range-bound or indecisive environment. 52,059 – Key support: Level corresponding to recent lows. A break below this area could confirm the breakdown of the bullish trendline and open the door to the formation of a new short-term downtrend. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:JP225
by FOREX.com
JP225 Bullish Reversal at DemandMarket Outlook: Despite the recent 4H bearishness, the Weekly and Daily charts remain firmly bullish. I am looking for a continuation of the primary trend as price tests a key structural demand zone. The Strategy: HTF Alignment: Using the Weekly/Daily bullish bias to filter for high-probability longs. POI Identification: Price has retraced into a proven support area around the 51k handle. Execution Trigger: A massive 4H Bullish Engulfing candle has formed, signaling that the "smart money" is likely defending this level. Risk Management: Maintaining a healthy risk-to-reward ratio by targeting the previous structural highs. The stop loss is tucked safely below the recent liquidity sweep to ensure we only stay in the trade if the bullish thesis remains valid. Patience is key—let the higher timeframe bias do the heavy lifting.
FOREXCOM:JP225Long
by Kingdom-Trader
Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 23 March 2026- Nikkei 225 reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 55200.00 Nikkei 225 index recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 51400.00 (which has been reversing the price from January), support trendline from May of 2025 and 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October. The upward reversal from this support zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing. Given the clear daily uptrend, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise toward the next resistance level 55200.00 (top of the previous correction (b)).
FXPRO:JAPAN225Long
by FxPro
Nikkei225: Flat C-Wave Decline (Major Update)Nikkei225 Update In line with the SPX500 scenario revision, I've made a major update to the previous count. After completing the double zigzag (W-X-Y) from the 2025 low to the high, we are now in a Flat A-B-C structure. Currently in the C-wave decline phase. Bias & Position Bearish continuation ⤵️ Targets 41,135 - 39,968 Immediate Invalidation ①: Break above 54,290 (possibility of B-wave continuation remains) ※ Due to high volatility in Nikkei225, ② 55,141 and ③ 55,747 are also set as invalidation levels. ※ Regarding the weekly sell signal, it's not as urgent as in SPX500, but if the sharp decline continues, it could trigger sooner. #Nikkei225 #Japan225CFD #ElliottWave
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDShort
by LIVERMORE333
10
Nikkei225: Bearish on X Wave Ahead of US CPI | Elliott WaveNikkei225 Tonight, if the US falls as expected: Zigzag A-B-C rise from the 3/9 low (C wave is an Ending Diagonal with 5th wave Failure) Now in corrective decline. If it develops into a double zigzag, we are currently in the X wave. Levels I'm watching: ・53,900 area (first hurdle) ・53,450 area ・52,500 area If we break significantly below 52,151, it could develop into a large double zigzag decline from the 2/26 high — so pay attention only to that. (Watching today's US Feb CPI release) Bias & Position Bearish Nearest Invalidation Point: 55,263 (This would negate the double zigzag decline) #Nikkei225 #ElliottWave
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDShort
by LIVERMORE333
4
Nikkei225 15min: Critical Level at 53,821 | Elliott WaveNikkei225 The pullback from the 05:00 session has been slightly deeper than initially expected. If price breaks below 53,821, we could see a move down to the 53,300 area. That said, the 53,600 zone acted as unusually strong support on March 3rd and 4th, so there’s a solid chance the decline finds a bottom around there. If we hold above 53,821 and break above 54,454, the path of least resistance turns higher. Should it break lower instead, expect a little more downside probing. Either way, a rebound looks probable in the near term. However, because a clear impulse wave has developed from the February 26 high, any rally up to around 56,600 is likely to be corrective in nature — with a more substantial decline expected to follow. This is my current view. #Nikkei225 #ElliottWave
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDLong
by LIVERMORE333
3
Nikkei 225: Flat (C) Wave 5 Decline Targeting 53,939Nikkei225 I currently see the index in the 5-wave decline of the flat (C) wave, starting from today's 15:45 high at 55,759. This flat (C) 5-wave can unfold as: - A diagonal (more complex and grinding lower), or - An impulse wave (sharp drop). Either way, I expect it to definitely touch the March 6 low at 53,939. Beyond that it's still unclear, but I think we may find initial support around the 53,600 zone. Even if it breaks into the 52,000 area, I believe strong bottoming action will emerge. Therefore, once 53,939 is touched: - Take profit on shorts and look for long entries, or - If the decline accelerates, keep the short and add a long hedge (two-way position). Immediate invalidation level: 55,759 Quick update. #Nikkei225 #ElliottWave #TradingView
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDShort
by LIVERMORE333
Nikkei 225 Wave 5 Ending Diagonal Forming | Target 53,800-53,600Nikkei225 Good morning! Crude oil remains stubbornly high, doesn't it? I believe the market is starting to price in the current war (Iran-related military conflict in the Middle East) as a medium-to-long-term ongoing situation with high probability. From the Feb 26 high, the impulse pattern has become quite dominant. We are currently in a descending impulse wave 5, with wave 5 forming an Ending Diagonal. First, it should touch the end of wave 1 at 55,153, followed by the near-term target of 53,800–53,600. Invalidation level: 55,852 (end of diagonal wave 2) #Nikkei225 #ElliottWave
WHSELFINVEST:JAPAN225CFDShort
by LIVERMORE333