The CAC 40 index continues its corrective movement, trading near 7799.0, as investors rotate capital from risk assets into bonds amid rising inflation concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions.
The ongoing US–Iran conflict and growing risks to global energy supply chains remain the key drivers of market sentiment.
⸻
Energy Risks Pressure European Markets
France is taking preventive measures to stabilize its energy market amid supply risks:
• Focus on Gravenchon refinery
• ~20% of national refining capacity
• Up to 12 million tons annually
This move aims to:
• Offset supply disruptions
• Stabilize domestic fuel markets
• Protect employment
Rising freight and insurance costs due to extended logistics routes further increase risks.
⸻
Weak Macro Data Signals Economic Slowdown
Recent French economic data points to growing risks:
• Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (slight improvement)
• Services PMI: 48.3 (decline)
• Composite PMI: 48.3 (down from 49.9)
Additional data:
• Business climate index: 99.0 (down from 102.0)
• Consumer confidence: 89.0 (down from 91.0)
New orders fell at the fastest pace since July 2025, while export demand weakened significantly.
⸻
Rising Bond Yields Weigh on Equities
Bond yields continue rising:
Short-term bonds:
• 3-month: 2.226%
• 6-month: 2.412%
• 12-month: 2.585%
Long-term bonds:
• 10-year: 3.796%
• 20-year: 4.293%
• 30-year: 4.550%
Higher yields reduce demand for equities and pressure stock indices.
⸻
Top Movers in CAC 40
Gainers
• TotalEnergies (+2.89%)
• STMicroelectronics (+1.91%)
• Sanofi (+1.36%)
• Dassault Systèmes (+0.95%)
• Carrefour (+0.91%)
Decliners
• Pernod Ricard (−5.73%)
• Legrand (−4.50%)
• Schneider Electric (−3.93%)
• ArcelorMittal (−3.47%)
• Airbus (−3.00%)
⸻
Technical Analysis
The index remains below the ascending channel support:
• Channel range: 8700–8050
• Correction remains intact
Indicators:
• Alligator: sell signal
• AO: negative bars
➡️ Bearish momentum remains dominant
⸻
Key Levels
Resistance
• 7940.0
• 8240.0
Support
• 7640.0
• 7350.0
⸻
Trading Scenarios
Bearish Scenario
Sell below 7640.0
• Entry: 7639.5
• Target: 7350.0
• Stop-loss: 7800.0
• Timeframe: 7 days or more
⸻
Bullish Scenario
Buy above 7940.0
• Entry: 7940.5
• Target: 8240.0
• Stop-loss: 7850.0
⸻
Outlook
CAC 40 remains under pressure from:
• Energy crisis
• Rising bond yields
• Weak macroeconomic data
• Break below 7640 → bearish continuation
• Break above 7940 → corrective rebound
Short-term bias remains bearish.
The ongoing US–Iran conflict and growing risks to global energy supply chains remain the key drivers of market sentiment.
⸻
Energy Risks Pressure European Markets
France is taking preventive measures to stabilize its energy market amid supply risks:
• Focus on Gravenchon refinery
• ~20% of national refining capacity
• Up to 12 million tons annually
This move aims to:
• Offset supply disruptions
• Stabilize domestic fuel markets
• Protect employment
Rising freight and insurance costs due to extended logistics routes further increase risks.
⸻
Weak Macro Data Signals Economic Slowdown
Recent French economic data points to growing risks:
• Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (slight improvement)
• Services PMI: 48.3 (decline)
• Composite PMI: 48.3 (down from 49.9)
Additional data:
• Business climate index: 99.0 (down from 102.0)
• Consumer confidence: 89.0 (down from 91.0)
New orders fell at the fastest pace since July 2025, while export demand weakened significantly.
⸻
Rising Bond Yields Weigh on Equities
Bond yields continue rising:
Short-term bonds:
• 3-month: 2.226%
• 6-month: 2.412%
• 12-month: 2.585%
Long-term bonds:
• 10-year: 3.796%
• 20-year: 4.293%
• 30-year: 4.550%
Higher yields reduce demand for equities and pressure stock indices.
⸻
Top Movers in CAC 40
Gainers
• TotalEnergies (+2.89%)
• STMicroelectronics (+1.91%)
• Sanofi (+1.36%)
• Dassault Systèmes (+0.95%)
• Carrefour (+0.91%)
Decliners
• Pernod Ricard (−5.73%)
• Legrand (−4.50%)
• Schneider Electric (−3.93%)
• ArcelorMittal (−3.47%)
• Airbus (−3.00%)
⸻
Technical Analysis
The index remains below the ascending channel support:
• Channel range: 8700–8050
• Correction remains intact
Indicators:
• Alligator: sell signal
• AO: negative bars
➡️ Bearish momentum remains dominant
⸻
Key Levels
Resistance
• 7940.0
• 8240.0
Support
• 7640.0
• 7350.0
⸻
Trading Scenarios
Bearish Scenario
Sell below 7640.0
• Entry: 7639.5
• Target: 7350.0
• Stop-loss: 7800.0
• Timeframe: 7 days or more
⸻
Bullish Scenario
Buy above 7940.0
• Entry: 7940.5
• Target: 8240.0
• Stop-loss: 7850.0
⸻
Outlook
CAC 40 remains under pressure from:
• Energy crisis
• Rising bond yields
• Weak macroeconomic data
• Break below 7640 → bearish continuation
• Break above 7940 → corrective rebound
Short-term bias remains bearish.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.