Nikkei: Heavy tape, 51000 under threat51000 is the line in the sand for Nikkei bulls. Defend it, or risk enticing more participants into the unwind already seen.
We’ve seen multiple bearish break attempts in March, all of which have failed. But the telling thing is the string of lower highs from bounces, sequentially failing around the 50DMA and, more recently, ahead of 54000. The index looks heavy.
RSI (14) is yet to set lower lows but remains below 50, indicating downside pressure remains in the ascendancy, a signal backed up by MACD which is motoring lower in negative territory.
Risks are therefore tilted to the downside, but they are unlikely to be acted upon until we see a definitive break, ideally accompanied by a close. Otherwise, it risks being just another failed break, potentially paving the way for a retest of sellers parked above 54000.
A sustained break of 51000 would allow for a stop to be placed above the level for protection, targeting the intersection of 48500 support and the 200DMA.
From a fundamental perspective, the longer the Iran war disrupts energy supply and keeps prices elevated, the greater the downside risk to Japanese corporate earnings, especially industrial names who derive a substantial share of revenues from offshore.
Good luck!
DS
Short
