BTC WAVE 3 CRASH FINAL DROP TO $38K!COINBASE:BTCUSD
As we approach the end of March, Bitcoin has completed a prolonged consolidation phase throughout February and March.
With April just around the corner, the market appears poised for the final manipulative leg down.
The recent ABC corrective structure concluded last week on March 17th. What followed is the early stages of a powerful impulse Wave 3 — with its most violent and accelerated decline still ahead of us!
We are now entering Wave 3 of a larger Wave 3, a phase that often delivers the sharpest and most decisive moves in the Elliott Wave sequence.
Price action is expected to accelerate downward, targeting the major support zone between $48,000 and $38,500 before this corrective cycle reaches exhaustion.
This final markdown phase could represent the last significant shakeout before the recovery leg begins.
Traders should prepare for increased volatility and sharp downside momentum in the coming weeks.
🚀 Mateusz Bogacki | 8-Year Analyst — smash that 👍, hit LIKE & SUBSCRIBE, and share your views in the comments below so we can make better trades & grow together!
Community ideas
GOLD DAILY CHART MARKET ANALYSISHi everyone,
Please review our latest daily chart idea, featuring our unique Goldturn ascending channel.
We are currently seeing price test the channel floor, with a wick filling the gap down to 4128 before moving back inside the channel. A confirmed structure break to the downside would require either an EMA5 lock or a strong body close outside the channel.
Otherwise, we are expecting a move back up toward 4587. A sustained close above this level would open the path into the upper Goldturn zones.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
We will keep you all updated as the setup develops.
Mr Gold
TheGrove | USDJP Sell | Idea Trading AnalysisUSD/JPY is trading within a rising channel, with price holding above the ascending support line after a clear bullish and is moving on Resistance level.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ⚜️
XAUUSD – 1H | Liquidity Swept – Back in Last Week's Range What Happened?
The 4,600 level I shared earlier has been hit – target achieved ✅
But here's what's important now:
After sweeping liquidity near the PWH (Previous Week High) , the market has reversed and moved back into last week's range.
📊 Current Structure
Liquidity swept at the top
Price now trading back inside the previous week's range
MSS still visible, price reacting from PDL levels
📌 What This Suggests
When the market sweeps a high and quickly returns to a lower range, it often indicates:
False breakout above key levels
Sellers stepping in at higher prices
Potential for another move down
🧾 Outlook
The fact that price is back in last week's range after hitting 4,600 suggests weakness rather than strength.
Bearish Scenario: Continued downside toward 4,520 and possibly 4,405
Bullish Invalidation: A clean reclaim above 4,604 (PWH)
📌 Plan
Let the market decide the next move.
For now, the liquidity grab looks complete, and price is showing signs of rejection.
Patience – confirmation is key.
GBPUSD Bearish Channel with FVG RejectionPrice is moving within a clear descending channel, respecting lower highs and lower lows, confirming a strong bearish trend. A retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) shows rejection, aligning with overall bearish momentum and Ichimoku resistance above price.
**Target:**
Price is expected to continue downward toward the **1.3119** support level as the next target.
SP500 May Not See New ATH Until 2027SP500 Weekly | Price Channel Analysis
The S&P 500 has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since the Covid 2020 lows, and the current price action is telling a very clear story.
Key Levels on the Chart:
After hitting an all-time high shy of $7,000 in January 2026, the index has since pulled back to the mid-channel zone. The current price sits at 6,368 — and based on channel structure, I believe we have more work to do before the next ATH.
The Predicted Path Forward:
1. Mid Channel Test ~$6,290 — The first support level to watch. Price is likely to revisit this zone before finding any meaningful bounce.
2. Bottom Channel Test ~$5,900 — If mid-channel fails to hold, the lower bound of the channel becomes the next logical target. This area previously acted as major support (March 2025 Low at $5,000 proved the bottom of the channel holds).
3. Mid Channel Bounce to ~$6,600 (Predicted) — A relief rally back toward the middle of the channel before the next leg down.
4. Next ATH — April 2027 — Only after the channel fully resets do I see conditions for a new all-time high above $7,000.
Why no new ATH before 2027?
The channel math simply doesn't support it yet. The upper band needs time to rise to a level where price can break out cleanly. Premature ATH attempts from the current position would likely get rejected at or below the prior $7,000 high.
The bottom of the trend line has been protected consistently since 2020 — every major dip has respected it. That structure remains intact, and as long as it does, the bull market is not over. But patience is required.
Conclusion : Bulls aren't done — but they need to wait. Expect chop and a deeper pullback toward $5,900–$6,290 before the next major leg up. April 2027 is the target for a new ATH.
Not financial advice. Trade safe.
OIL - Ascending Triangle BreakoutWith today's daily close at $105, price has cleared the $103 level I was closely monitoring for a confirmed breakout. This print opens the door for OIL to rise back toward the $120 level and potentially as high as $125 based on the measured move.
Within the $120–$125 range there are several important structural levels to watch, including the 1.618 extension and the longer-term resistance trendline outlined in this post:
If conditions escalate further and those targets are broken, the $145–$154 range becomes the primary focus as outlined in this post:
It is worth noting that OIL sustaining those levels would be extremely difficult, and even if price reaches that zone, it is highly likely that agreements or deals would be forced upon the market and quickly push price back below $120.
It is also possible that price comes back to retest the top of the ascending triangle around $101 before continuing higher. However, based on today's price action, that retest may have already occurred and the expansion toward $120 appears to be next on the agenda.
This also means the potential rising wedge from my last idea is negated. The only way this changes is if the next 4H candle instantly reverses and closes back within the rising wedge:
100K oil barrels vanishing every 10 minutes Nearly all market moves are being driven by the war with Iran at this point.
Aluminium moved close to price levels not seen since 2022 after Iranian attacks on two Middle Eastern producers.
Brent is on pace for its biggest monthly surge on record, while our spreads remain stable.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that the U.S. will “completely” obliterate Iran’s Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not “immediately” reopened.
The amount of oil supply being lost every 10 minutes is 100,000 barrels due to the closure of the strait.
Countries around the world are now starting to implement emergency measures, which means oil is becoming even more acutely central to both inflation expectations and growth. FX pairs and gold should also be watched closely as key reflections of this shift.
Gold Rebounds From Major Support but Trend Pressure WeighsGold has started to stabilize after a sharp breakdown into the 4,275 support region, with price now attempting a short-term recovery from an area that previously acted as a major structural floor. The bounce is notable, but the broader chart still shows that price remains under pressure after losing the rising trendline and slipping below both key moving averages.
From a trend perspective, the technical damage remains significant. Price is trading beneath the 50-period and 200-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart, and the 50-period average has rolled over sharply, reflecting weakening short-term momentum. The break below the ascending trendline that had supported the broader advance also shifted the structure from orderly upside continuation into corrective decline. While the recent rebound from support is constructive, it has not yet fully repaired that break in trend.
Momentum indicators suggest the selloff may be easing. MACD has improved materially from its recent lows and is curling back toward the zero line, indicating bearish momentum is fading and a recovery phase may be developing. RSI has also recovered back toward the midline and is now hovering around neutral territory, which supports the idea of short-term stabilization rather than continued panic selling. Still, neither indicator is yet showing a fully dominant bullish impulse.
The chart now appears to be caught between a meaningful support reaction and a still-fragile broader structure. As long as gold holds above the 4,275 zone, the current rebound can continue to build, but overhead pressure from the broken trendline area and the moving averages remains important. For now, the near-term tone has improved from deeply bearish to neutral-to-recovery, though the larger technical picture still needs stronger confirmation before that recovery can be viewed as a more durable trend shift.
-MW
USD/JPY Reverses as Yields Roll OverUSD/JPY initially surged above 160 on Monday before reversing lower as U.S. Treasury yields pulled back, taking some momentum out of the greenback. The earlier move higher reflected the ongoing impact of the Iran-driven oil shock, which continues to weigh disproportionately on Japan given its reliance on imported energy. Elevated crude prices are worsening Japan’s terms of trade and reinforcing a challenging macro backdrop, even as they push headline inflation higher. But as yields in the U.S. retraced, the buck lost traction, allowing the Yen to recover.
For the BOJ, the current environment remains deeply complicated. Rising energy costs are lifting inflation, but policymakers remain skeptical that this represents the kind of demand-driven price pressure needed to justify a more aggressive tightening path. At the same time, higher import costs risk undermining growth, reinforcing the BOJ’s cautious approach to normalization. With the Federal Reserve still guiding toward a data-dependent stance, USD/JPY is increasingly being driven by rate dynamics in the U.S., with today’s reversal highlighting how sensitive the pair remains to shifts in Treasury yields even amid a persistent energy shock.
In the above chart, USD/JPY rates are persisting above former multi-year resistance (the swing highs at the start of 2025 and early-2026) carved out below 160.00. The sustained move above resistance, now support, suggests that the year-plus long ascending triangle has yielded a topside breakout, which remains the guiding technical thrust. Momentum may have dissipated in recent days, with Slow Stochastics dipping out of overbought territory; nonetheless, MACD, while in decline, is still firmly above its signal line. For now, bulls remain in control with USD/JPY in breakout territory. Traders should watch for a breakdown in both oil and Treasury yield, however – doing so could spell the end of the ascending triangle’s bullish potential.
NQ - Monthly_+19,887 Ticks bullishNQ Monthly time frame is in an up channel. The Monthly
time frame is near support. If support holds. The market
is expected to U-turn and push to all time highs. There is
a monthly resistance at price point 28186.50 about
+19,887 Ticks above the market. As long as the market
stays above the bottom blue level, it will be a good idea
to turn to daily time frame and look for long ideas when
the market enters into the buy zone.
AUD/USD Quick Analysis
(4H & 2H – 30 Mar 2026) AUD/USD Quick Analysis
(4H & 2H – 30 Mar 2026)
4-hour
Trend: Bearish reversal. Uptrend ended; sharp breakdown below 50 EMA and 0.6900 support.
4H View:
Sellers in control. 50 EMA now resistance.
Targets: 0.6750 → 0.6650
2H View:
Fast sell-off. “SN (2h)” marks short entry at failed bounce.
Key Levels:
* 0.6900: Sell bounces
* 0.6840: Minor resistance
* 0.6750: Next support
* 0.6650: Deeper support
Bias: Bearish. Sell rallies.
Bullish only above 0.7000.
Clean breakdown — sellers dominate.
Moment of Truth for $SERVI really like SERV. Both as a stock and as a company. My 1 year price target is a whopping 100% above the current price at $17.
Since it's IPO it has been coiling like crazy. It's been consistently posting lower highs and higher lows. The upper trendline has been hit 4 times, and the lower trendline was just hit for the 3rd time.
If the stock can bounce here, it's a bit of a bullish scenario. If it doesn't, this triangle could break down and we could be in for some pain.
It's one of those "could go either way" scenarios.
Either way, when a stock coils like this so much it usually leads to pretty aggressive price action. Especially when the volume forms a massive node right at the POC and not a whole lot of volume above of below it.
The thing that has me "bullish" on this is the bullish divergence on the rsi chart.
I'm actually already in on this position as I had $9-stike put get assigned. So we're in this whether we like it or not!
My average is $8.87.
My targets are:
Stop Loss = $7 (although I'll look to get back in around $6)
Target 1 = $11.50 (or upper trendline touch, whichever comes first)
Target 2 = $14
EURAUD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Key SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 1.67357
- Overlap support
- 61.8% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 1.66972
- Swing low support
Take Profit: 1.67828
- Swing high resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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USDJPY (2H) TARGETS...USDJPY (2H) and price is reacting from the upper trendline of a rising channel → looks like a bearish correction setup.
📊 Analysis:
Market made a strong bullish move
Now showing rejection from resistance
Structure suggests a pullback toward lower channel / support zone
🎯 Targets (Sell Scenario):
🔹 Entry Zone:
➡️ Around 159.40 – 159.60 (current rejection area / retest)
🎯 Target 1:
➡️ 159.00 (first support)
🎯 Target 2:
➡️ 158.45
🎯 Target 3 (Strong Drop):
➡️ 158.00
🛑 Stop Loss:
➡️ Above 160.20 (recent high / trendline breakout)
⚠️ Important:
This is counter-trend (correction) → take partial profits
If price breaks above 160.20, setup invalid ❌
Watch for retest of trendline before drop
🔥 Alternative (Buy Scenario):
If breakout above 160.20
Target: 160.80 → 161.50
AUDUSD H4 | Bullish ReversalMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 0.68498
- Pullback support
- 141.4% Fib extension
Stop Loss: 0.68058
- Pullback support
Take Profit: 0.69105
- Swing high resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk), Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
$TAOUSDT Testing $300 Zone - Next Move LoadingBINANCE:TAOUSDT on the 1H is coming down after a distribution phase and now tapping into a solid support zone.
Price is sitting around $308 – $299, which lines up with previous demand + higher timeframe support. You can already see buyers trying to defend this area with those wicks forming.
This looks like a pullback into value after a downtrend leg, not something to short at the lows.
Game plan:
Watching for entries around $308 area — but only if we get a clean reaction or small structure flip. No rushing in.
Invalidation is clear:
Lose $296, and this level breaks — then we’re likely heading lower.
Upside targets:
First push toward $331 — that’s your immediate resistance and mid-range level.
If momentum builds, extension toward $368 is possible.
Right now it’s simple:
Price at key support
Buyers showing early signs
Looking for a bounce, not a full reversal (yet)
Let the level play out — if it holds, decent RR setup. If not, step aside.
Nifty levels - Apr 01, 2026Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
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