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XAUUSD Holding Trend Support - Bullish Continuation PossibleHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (2H) chart structure. Price previously developed a steady bullish move after rebounding from a lower support region, gradually forming higher highs and higher lows while respecting a well-defined ascending trend line. This upward movement reflected increasing buying pressure and the establishment of a constructive bullish structure. During this phase, the market also broke above a prior resistance line, confirming a shift in momentum and opening the door for further upside continuation. Following this breakout, price advanced toward a major Seller Zone near 5,250, where the market encountered strong supply pressure. This area acted as a key resistance level and caused the market to transition into a horizontal range consolidation. Inside this range, price moved sideways between the upper resistance zone and the Buyer Zone around 5,070, reflecting temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Multiple reactions from both boundaries confirmed the importance of these levels and showed that the market was building liquidity before the next directional move. Currently, price is stabilizing near the Buyer Zone and the ascending trend support, creating a confluence area where buyers are attempting to regain control. At the same time, the market is trading below the descending resistance line, which continues to cap bullish momentum and forms a compression structure between dynamic resistance and rising support. My primary scenario remains bullish-to-neutral as long as price holds above the 5,070 support level and respects the rising trend line. A confirmed bounce from this demand area could drive price back toward the 5,250 resistance zone, which aligns with the previous seller zone and represents the next key target (TP1) for buyers. However, if price fails to maintain support and breaks decisively below the buyer zone and trend line, the bullish structure would weaken and could lead to a deeper corrective decline toward lower support levels. For now, the market is approaching an important decision point where the reaction from support will likely determine the next directional move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
63
BTCUSDT | Bear Market Playbook: Dead Cat Bounce #2Bitcoin continues to respect the bearish market structure on the higher timeframes. For the 6th time in a row, every time the Volume Delta flips green, price still goes on to print another lower low on the 1D timeframe. This is a clear sign that buying pressure is being absorbed. What many traders interpret as bullish momentum is simply short-term relief rallies inside a larger downtrend. A perfect example was the bounce from the February lows. Now we are seeing the same pattern repeating again. Price bounced into the 0.382 retracement zone (~74.5K) and immediately started showing rejection. This type of reaction typically indicates: - Continuation of the bearish structure - Another liquidity sweep to the downside - Lower prices before any meaningful bottom forms I also previously stated that this is not the market bottom → Market bottom structure doesn't look like this at all. It has to be engineered in a completely different shape. Until the structure changes and we start seeing higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe, these bounces should be treated as temporary relief rallies — not trend reversals. Scenario in play: If the rejection continues from the current retracement zone, the market is likely to rotate lower again and expand further into the downside liquidity below the recent lows. In bear markets, green Volume Delta does not necessarily mean bullish continuation — it often means trapped buyers. Good Luck!
Short
by VIPCryptoVault
32
Everything is Just Beginning: Why the War-Driven Rally is a Trap Hey everyone, The war in the Middle East, which I have been warning about throughout 2025, has begun. But to the surprise of many, the markets did not collapse. On the contrary, we saw a rally in cryptocurrency and gold, while indices only corrected slightly. Just 5 min read it I warned you long before everything Right now, the prevailing narrative in my information space is that Bitcoin has become a "safe-haven asset," that Iranians are buying it en masse, and that funds are ready to absorb any supply. It seems like the market is reversing. But this is far from the truth. Recent Trades Report: It's possible and necessary to work even in a market like this. I managed to catch a good trade on the last move: BTC: Long from 66000 exited at 73,300. ETH: Long from 1880 exited at 2150 Profits are locked in, but this does not change my global outlook. Now is not the time for euphoria and increasing risk, but for a cool head and strict discipline. Current Situation Analysis: Why This Isn't the Bottom? Why do I believe that neither $70,000 nor even $60,000 is the bottom yet? Because a bottom is not a point on a chart; it is a process. And this process usually looks different. Range Formation: We have now defined a large range between ~ 60- 73k. This range will be traded, accumulating liquidity on both sides. The Liquidity Hunt: Markets move from one liquidity pool to another. The majority of buyers' stop-losses are now concentrated below the $60k level. Therefore, a break of this level to the downside is not a question of "if," but "when." My Base Scenario on the Chart: On the chart above, I have outlined my vision for the coming months. The price has tested a significant supply zone. Next, I expect a prolonged period of trading within the range, possibly with a false breakout to the upside to create even more euphoria. After that, the most likely scenario is a sharp move down to sweep the liquidity below the current lows. We have plenty of time until September for large capital to complete its accumulation phase, and this process is rarely painless. Geopolitics and the Macro View: Many people have suddenly become geopolitical experts. As someone who has lived in a military conflict zone for a long time, I will say one thing: to my great regret, everything is just beginning. The turbulence will increase, and market sentiment will swing from hyper-positive to panic. In parallel, the AI revolution is changing everything. We are on the cusp of enormous change. In such times, survival belongs not to the strongest, but to the most adaptable. Flexibility is the key skill. Conclusion We are in the process of forming a bottom. It will be a long and likely volatile process. But it is this process that will provide us with what may be one of the last opportunities to buy Bitcoin while it still has a five-figure price tag. Stay in touch. Leave a like, ask questions in the comments - your feedback is very important for creating new content. Best regards, Your EXCAVO.
by EXCAVO
59
Stop Trading on Gut Feeling: How to Build Your First StrategyThere's a special kind of confidence that strikes new traders about three hours into their first session. Charts are open, indicators are blinking, and somewhere between the second cup of coffee and the fourth YouTube tutorial, a feeling arrives: I totally get this. I should simply buy low and sell high. Two bad trades later, that feeling is gone — replaced by something quieter and considerably more expensive. Sound familiar? Good. That means you're ready for what comes next: an actual strategy. 🧠 Your Gut Is Not a Strategy Let's be honest about what trading on instinct really is: it's pattern recognition without the patterns. You see a line go up, something in your brain says "it's going higher," and before you know it, you've bought the top. Again. The market doesn't care about your feelings. It doesn't care that you did "a lot of research" (read: scrolled X and Reddit for 40 minutes). What it responds to — what it's always responded to — is structure. Rules. A repeatable process. In other words, a strategy. 📐 What a Strategy Actually Is A trading strategy isn't a magic formula or a secret indicator combo promoted by a hedge fund manager on a yacht. At its most basic, it's a set of rules that tells you three things: when to get in, when to get out, and how much to risk. That's it. Entry, exit, risk. Write those three words on a sticky note and put it somewhere you'll see it. It’s true for any asset out there: Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC , or PURPLETRADING:EURUSD. A simple example for a beginner: enter a short-term trade when the price crosses above the 50-day moving average, exit when it drops back below, and never risk more than 1% of your account on a single trade. Is it glamorous? No. Does it beat "I had a good feeling about it"? Every single time. 🔬 Backtesting: Your Strategy's First Reality Check Before you put real money on any strategy, you test it. This is called backtesting — applying your rules to historical price data to see how they would have performed. Think of it as a flight simulator for your trades. You get to crash the plane without actually crashing the plane. The built-in TradingView Pine Script editor lets you do this directly on the chart. You don't need to be a coder. Start with a simple script, run it on a few weeks/months/years of data, and see what the numbers say. Our superstar users have been too kind and generous to populate the library with lots of helpful indicators and strategies . Pay attention to win rate, average gain vs. average loss, and maximum drawdown. If the strategy doesn't survive backtesting, it won't survive real markets either. 📏 The One Rule That Actually Protects You Of all the rules in trading, risk management is the one beginners ignore most and regret most. The idea is simple: decide in advance how much you're willing to lose on any single trade — most professionals suggest 1% to 2% of your total capital — and stick to it religiously. This isn't pessimism. It's arithmetic. A trader who loses 10 trades in a row but only risked 1% each time is down 10%. A trader who risked 20% per trade on that same streak is down 89% and having a very bad week. Position sizing isn't a footnote — it's the whole story. Here’s the moment where you need to learn about the asymmetric risk-reward bet . 🚀 Start Small, Then Scale The fastest way to learn a strategy isn't to read more about it — it's to trade it in small size. Paper trading is a fine starting point, but there's something about real money, even tiny amounts, that sharpens the mind considerably. Start with a position size so small it almost feels embarrassing. Get comfortable with the mechanics. Follow your rules even when it's uncomfortable — especially when it's uncomfortable. Once you've run the strategy for 20 or 30 trades and the rules feel second nature, then you scale up. Not before. The market will still be here tomorrow, and the day after that. Off to you : How do you handle your day-to-day trading process? Share your strategy below and help your peers.
Education
by TradingView
18
Gold (XAU/USD): Safehaven flows favour Dollar – will $5k hold?Gold took a serious hit yesterday, falling sharply despite the massive geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Why? Because the resulting energy shock is inherently inflationary, and safe-haven flows are currently pouring into the US Dollar instead. However, XAU/USD has found a critical floor at the $5,000 psychological level, which lines up perfectly with a major Fibonacci retracement. We are tracking a complex technical structure to see whether this is a mini dead-cat bounce, the start of a broader recovery, or a short-to-medium-term decline. Key topics covered - Inflation trade-off : The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is acting as a double-edged sword for Gold. The resulting energy shock is driving up inflation expectations (also had a hot US PPI print of 2.9%), which in turn is reducing the probability of Fed rate cuts—boosting the Dollar at Gold's expense. - 5k cluster support : Analysing the critical bounce at $5,000, which aligns precisely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the macro drop from the $5,600 record highs. - Elliott Wave & triangle structure : We break down the recent bearish sequence. If the current bounce fails below the 50% retracement ($5,200), we could see a 5-wave impulse down. However, as long as the price holds above the Wave E low at $4,860, the broader bullish ascending triangle remains valid. - Pennant potential : Why a deeper drop toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $4,680 wouldn't necessarily kill the bull market, but rather point to a symmetrical pennant consolidation. XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan - Bearish : The recent bounce looks like a mini dead cat bounce. As long as prices remain below the short-term 50% Fibonacci resistance at $5,200, the structure is impulsive to the downside. A break below $5,000 opens up the $4,860 invalidation level, and potentially $4,680. Wait for a lower high to form for a higher-probability short entry. - Bullish : If buyers can push the price back above the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at $5,260, it revives the ascending triangle thesis, suggesting the correction ended at $5,000, and the trend is ready to continue higher. Are you buying the $5k support or waiting for a clearer signal? Share your views in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
13
Is Apple Rolling Over?Apple has done little for a long time, and some traders may think the tech giant is rolling over. The first pattern on today’s chart is the weekly close of $278.78 on December 5. AAPL tried to cross above that level the following week but failed. It was revisited early last month without breaking. That may suggest resistance is in place. Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is falling and prices have struggled to remain above it. The stock is also slipping below its 100-day SMA. Those points may reflect weakening momentum over the intermediate term. Third, prices dropped below their 21-day exponential moving average last week and have stayed there since. That may reflect short-term bearishness. Fourth, converging lines form a potential triangle. Could prices start moving after this period of tightening? Next, AAPL’s last two earnings reports beat expectations. The stock briefly rallied both times, but with little follow-through. That may reflect limited enthusiasm toward the name. Finally, AAPL is a highly active underlier in the options market. Its daily average volume of 1.1 million contracts ranks third in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data. That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradeStation
6
Microsoft - One of the best swingtrades ever!💵Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) is setting up for something big: 🔎Analysis summary: For over six months, Microsoft has clearly been creating a healthy correction. But looking at higher timeframe structure, Microsoft is also currently retesting a major support area. If we see bullish confirmation soon, this will be one of the best swingtrades of 2026. 📝Levels to watch: $400 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by SwingTraderPhil
43
BITCOIN at $50k would follow exactly the 2022 script.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to replicate the 2022 Bear Cycle, in fact it's been repeating the price action even before it as the build up sequence since 2021 is identical to the one of late 2024 - 2025. BTC is right now at the 2nd Stage of consolidation right above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1st Stage was on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). With the 1W RSI oversold (below 30.00) as in June 2022, we might be facing a break below the 1W MA200 soon and new consolidation below it. The November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom was priced exactly on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) after it marginally broke below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Even though this time the bottom might be even lower (45k-40k), a $50000 entry seems technically like a good opportunity for long-term buying. So do you think BTC will continue replicating the 2022 Bear Cycle to the point it hits $50000 at least? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by TradingShot
56
Oil Gaps Into Multi-Year ResistanceWith conflict erupting in the Middle East over the weekend, the gap higher in oil prices is hardly surprising. But while sudden price moves tend to attract traders like moths to a flame, moments like this are exactly when context becomes most important. Geopolitics jolts energy markets Energy traders have been quick to price in the additional risk premium associated with the scale and significance of the weekend’s military action. With fears of escalation and potential supply disruption centred around the Strait of Hormuz, the sharp move higher in oil prices is not particularly surprising. But when markets are being driven by rapidly evolving geopolitical developments, the day-to-day news flow can make it difficult to maintain a sense of the bigger picture. This is exactly where technical analysis can add value, helping traders step back from the headlines and understand where price is moving within the broader market structure. The rally meets multi-year resistance Looking at the weekly chart, the broader structure of the oil market over the past few years has been defined by a gradual sequence of lower swing highs. In simple terms, each rally has struggled to push beyond the previous peak, creating a gently downward-sloping structure on the higher timeframe. That backdrop makes the current move particularly interesting. The geopolitical shock has propelled oil directly back into one of these higher-timeframe resistance zones, sitting just beneath the highs formed during previous rallies. In other words, the news has acted as the catalyst, but the market has arrived at a level that already carried significant technical weight. The speed of the move also stands out. Momentum on the daily chart has surged as price rapidly pushed away from recent consolidation and into territory where previous advances have struggled to sustain follow-through. Moves like this often leave areas on the chart where price travelled quickly with relatively little trading activity, creating pockets of thin liquidity that markets sometimes revisit later. From a structural perspective, this leaves oil at an interesting crossroads. If buyers can sustain momentum and push price through this resistance zone, it would mark a meaningful shift in the longer-term structure by breaking the pattern of lower highs that has defined the market in recent years. But if the rally begins to stall here, it would simply reinforce that same structure once again. For traders, that makes the coming sessions particularly interesting. The headlines may have triggered the move, but the weekly chart suggests oil has now arrived at one of the most important technical decision points on the chart. UKOIL Weekly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results UKOIL Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by Capital.com
12
Gold – Volatility Risks Increase Due to Iran ConflictIt could be argued that geopolitics weren’t considered a primary driver of Gold through much of February. The focus for traders was more on positioning, shifting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and the jolt of uncertainty that followed the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. This all combined to explain the sharp drop from all-time highs at 5598 on January 29th, to low at 4403 on February 2nd, and then just as importantly, the choppy rebound and subsequent firm hold above 5000 since February 20th. However, geopolitics jumped to the forefront again on Friday after Bloomberg and other news agencies reported United Nations inspectors said Iran is conducting regular and unexplained activity at bombed uranium-enrichment sites, adding a major hurdle to on-going talks between US-Iran to agree a nuclear deal. This led Gold to spike 1.83% and close at a 1 month high of 5280. Gold is often seen as a safe haven during times of global upheaval or major geopolitical events, and traders were keen to add protection over the weekend. It turns out that decision was a sound one, with the US and Israel carrying out combined strikes on targets across Iran on Saturday and Sunday, which was then followed by retaliatory strikes on US and Israeli bases in the Middle East region. The attacks on Tehran, the Iranian capital led to the death of the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and so far, officials have stated they will still not negotiate with the US. This all represents a major escalation and opens the possibility for a more extended conflict than initially anticipated. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Gold spiked another 2.5% this morning to fresh 1-month highs of 5419 in early trading (0730 GMT). Whether Gold continues its recent up move to print new all-time highs above 5600, or falls back to lower levels may well depend on real time updates regarding how the fast moving situation in Iran develops over the next 48 hours, with traders sensitive to updates on the potential length of the conflict, support from US Congress for further escalation, and if the Iranian regime can maintain its rule of the country or eventually capitulates and opens the possibility of fresh negotiations. Technical Update: Long Term Uptrend Resumption? Gold strengthened into the weekend, with Friday’s close at the week’s upside extreme (5280), perhaps a sign of developing positive sentiment. Weekend events in Iran raised the likelihood of heightened volatility, and while the broader market impact remains to be seen this week, keeping key support and resistance levels in focus could be important for mapping out the next potential directional themes for Gold in the days ahead. Potential Resistance Focus: If the heightened geopolitical tensions escalate, traders might anticipate potential safe‑haven demand favouring further Gold strength. In that scenario, the first notable resistance may sit at 5451, a level which is equal to the January 30th high trade. A closing break above 5451 could reinforce upside momentum and open the door for attempts at additional price gains. Gold’s ability to post successful closing breaks above 5451 could signal renewed momentum within the broader, still‑intact long‑term uptrend. Clearing that first resistance may open scope for tests of 5598, which is the January 29th all-time high. A break above 5598 could suggest the possibility of further price strength toward 6046, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level. Potential Support Focus: Gold’s recent strength could face corrective pressure if geopolitical tensions around Iran ease, with traders potentially looking for selling interest to re‑emerge. In that scenario, the first key level to monitor may be 5238, a level which is equal to half the latest price strength. A closing break below 5238 could suggest weakening support and even point to further downside pressure. While not an outright bearish signal on its own, closes below 5238 could suggest corrective pressure may well be building and deeper supports may then come into play, with the focus shifting first to the rising mid‑average at 5055, then even to 5018, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of February’s advance. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
5
S&P and a very timely correction for the U.S. presidentWith the start of the boxing match between the U.S. and the regime in Iran in the Middle East ring, and with rising threats around the Strait of Hormuz, around 20–30% of global oil and gas supply could be disrupted—at least in the coming week (hopefully not for long). Usually, these kinds of tensions inject fear into the markets and create a chain reaction. The first domino to wobble is energy—and in this case, specifically oil prices. So how does this chain look in our case? Higher Oil Price --> Higher Inflation --> Higher Interest Rates --> Lower Corporate Profits Can you see the connection with the S&P? Markets move on trader sentiment and the perceived future value of the assets they trade. So what should we expect for the S&P? If the S&P breaks below $6790, my next target is $6500. The downtrend can be reinforced by sustained higher oil prices and a stronger DXY (>97). In that case, the S&P could reach $6150. Why is this timely? We have the U.S. presidential midterm elections in November. That gives President Trump’s administration enough time to potentially revive the market and show strong growth in the months leading up to the election. Recency bias plays a role here. A new Fed Chairman will be in office by the end of May. As you may know, Kevin Warsh has been announced as the next nominee, and he is considered hawkish. So at least until June, the market will likely price in “no rate cuts.” Seasonality in the S&P also shows that around this period we often see corrections—and sometimes the lowest prices of the year. (Note that, I made the seasonality chart myself and the big moves during the COVID period have not been excluded)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SamanFx0
16
Bitcoin - War in Dubai, Bitcoin crash soon! (pump after that)The current war between Iran and the UAE (Dubai) will probably send the price of Bitcoin (and all altcoins) down! Dubai has been one of the most secure places in the world, but with the current attacks, people may lose trust, and the housing market could collapse in this country. Dubai is known as a major global hub for cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, that's why it's so dangerous for the price of Bitcoin. We may see a huge sell-off and fear in the market in the next coming days/weeks, but in my opinion, that would be a great opportunity to enter a long position. You want to buy when there is blood on the streets, not when everyone is buying. I think we can expect a last capitulation and big sell-off towards 58k in the short term. Then we may see a huge rise to 83k. From a technical point of view, 58k is a very strong support because of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bull market and also because of the 200 weekly moving average. This gives us a strong confluence to buy Bitcoin here. What is very interesting is that we can see a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart (blue triangle). Triangles are very tricky because big players tend to take liquidity on both sides. In other words, whales will send the price down to take all stop losses from bulls and then up to take all stop losses from bears. If you see a triangle on a chart, always stay very cautious. You can trade triangles if you know what you are doing. On the RSI indicator there is still no bullish divergence. But if the price drops to 58k, we will see a bearish divergence on the indicator. What is a bullish divergence? The price makes a lower low, but the indicator makes a higher low instead, which is a sign of strength. I am very curious. What do you think about the current war in the Middle East? Write a comment! Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
115
Gold Powers Up Again. Can It Go All the Way to $6,000?(That’s only about 10% from here. In this year’s gold terms, that’s piece of cake.) Gold OANDA:XAUUSD woke up and chose higher grounds on Monday. Prices climbed more than 3% to $5,415 per ounce after the US and Israel over the weekend launched major strikes on Iran, sending geopolitical risk sharply higher. Safe-haven demand returned with conviction. Silver OANDA:XAGUSD joined the move, rising more than 2% toward $96 per ounce. Bullion has already posted successive record highs this year , and this latest push builds on a staggering 64% gain in 2025. For a metal known for stability, that is a powerful run. 🌍 When the World Gets Loud, Gold Gets Busy Escalating tensions in the Middle East have added fresh uncertainty to global markets . Israel’s strikes on Tehran and Iran’s retaliatory missile barrages introduce risks that extend beyond the region. Markets tend to price uncertainty quickly. Gold has long benefited from moments when investors seek assets perceived as durable stores of value. This rally reflects more than headlines. It reflects positioning. 🏦 Central Banks and Big Money The current strength in gold also rests on structural demand. Central banks have remained active buyers, diversifying reserves and adding to long-term holdings. Exchange-traded funds have recorded solid inflows as investors position for potential shifts in monetary policy. Major banks are reinforcing the bullish narrative. JPMorgan Chase NYSE:JPM forecasts that sustained demand from central banks and investors could push prices toward $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. Bank of America NYSE:BAC has reiterated similar expectations, highlighting the psychological significance of the $6,000 level. With gold trading above $5,400, the milestone sits within reach. 📊 The Macro Backdrop Still Matters Recent US data adds another layer to the story. Producer prices released last week rose more than expected in January, suggesting inflation pressures may be back on the menu. Investors will parse upcoming labor reports, including the ADP employment update, weekly jobless claims and the nonfarm payrolls report ECONOMICS:USNFP on deck for Friday (Ref: economic calendar ). Gold tends to respond favorably when inflation rises or when markets anticipate easier monetary policy. Expectations of potential rate cuts later this year continue to support the metal’s upward momentum. 🧮 Is $6,000 Realistic? At current levels, a move to $6,000 represents roughly a 10% climb. In commodities, it qualifies as a meaningful extension. But in commodities 2026 edition, that feels like a week of effort. Momentum remains strong, and structural demand provides a cushion. At the same time, price acceleration has already been substantial. Markets rarely travel in straight lines. Consolidation and volatility often accompany rapid advances. Traders watching the $6,000 threshold will likely view it as both a target and a test. Off to you : Do you think the next chapter brings consolidation or another charge higher toward that round-number prize? Share your views in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
38
How to act in times of geopolitical tensionAny geopolitical tension is reflected in market pricing, let alone direct military action. The morning of February 28 was marked by yet another military conflict in the Middle East. Like any armed conflict, it carries severe consequences for both the economy and the population of the country in which it takes place. Let’s break down how an armed confrontation in the Middle East moves markets across the globe. Capital Flows Into Defensive Assets To begin with, during almost any period of geopolitical tension, capital traditionally flows into a defensive basket. The primary reason is uncertainty. Thousands of unknown consequences that markets must begin pricing in immediately act as a discounting factor. Evidence of this could already be observed today (over the weekend, when traditional markets were closed) via pricing providers that operate during non-standard hours. Perpetual futures (a type of futures contract with no expiration date) tied to oil jumped approximately 6.2% to $70.6 per barrel on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid, while gold and silver futures rose more than 5% and 8%, reaching $5,464 and $97.5 per troy ounce respectively. These moves may provide some indication of how these markets could react once regular trading resumes on Monday. Tokenized gold instruments also advanced: Tether Gold climbed to $5,470 per troy ounce, and PAX Gold reached $5,590. The Strait of Hormuz — A Direct Market Driver One of the main factors directly impacting financial markets is blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of all global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If it were to be blocked even partially, the global economy would experience a shock. By disrupting this route, global oil prices would automatically surge, dragging inflation along with them. Under such conditions, one could reasonably expect: • A 1–2% increase in global inflation • Oil prices rising toward $120 per barrel If the strait were blocked even for just several days, not to mention a prolonged disruption. In addition, wartime insurance premiums for tankers operating in the Persian Gulf would increase due to the risk of attacks, which would further push oil prices higher. Historical reference: “2019 (attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman): Brent +2–4% in one day, followed by additional gains. Insurance premiums increased multiple times.” Macroeconomic Transmission High oil prices translate into rising costs for all companies: • Airlines • Transportation • Chemical industries • Manufacturing A new wave of inflation could also result in the Federal Reserve maintaining elevated interest rates, which becomes another powerful pricing factor. Countries Most Exposed China — 14% of imports from Iran in addition to Saudi supply. India — 50%+ of imports pass through the strait. Iran loses 90% of its export revenues. Closing the strait would amount to economic suicide, considering oil accounts for 35% of GDP. Europe — direct dependency is relatively low: only 5% of gas and 12% of petroleum products come from the Gulf. However, global price increases hit the economy, eroding recovery after 2022–2023. Japan — 70–75% of oil and ~60% of LNG pass through Hormuz. 87% of total energy consumption is imported fossil fuels. South Korea — 60–68% of crude oil; 81% of total energy is imported. Short-Term Beneficiaries In the short term, the United States, Russia, Norway, and Canada — as oil exporters — benefit. Higher prices allow them to generate additional revenue. However, inflation prevents them from fully enjoying these gains. Strikes on Iran are a reminder: markets fear uncertainty more than war itself. When risks of energy supply disruptions arise, investors immediately shift into defensive mode: • Equities come under pressure • Volatility increases • Demand for safe-haven assets — gold, U.S. Treasuries, the dollar — rises sharply Defense and energy companies may experience inflows, but the broader market becomes nervous. A short conflict — markets recover quickly. A prolonged one — fear and uncertainty pressure sentiment for months. Our Strategy: Rebalancing Into a Defensive Basket What Is a Defensive Basket? A defensive asset basket is a group of financial instruments that investors use to minimize risk during periods of economic instability, recession, or market turbulence. Its primary objective is capital preservation and portfolio stability under unstable conditions. Key Characteristics: • Low or negative correlation with risk assets (equities, corporate bonds) • Stable value or a tendency to appreciate during market stress • High liquidity Composition of the Defensive Basket Gold and Silver Gold — the traditional “safe” asset. It is considered a capital refuge, especially during periods of high inflation, geopolitical risk, or market downturns. Silver — possesses defensive characteristics but is more dependent on industrial demand, which makes it less resilient during crisis periods. U.S. Dollar The world’s reserve currency. Its value typically rises during periods of global risk due to demand for liquid and reliable assets. A strong U.S. dollar means that equities, indices, and currencies inversely correlated with USD tend to show weakness. Japanese Yen The yen often strengthens during periods of market stress. This is related to its role as a funding currency (carry trade) and Japan’s stable economy. Swiss Franc A reliable currency associated with Switzerland’s political and economic stability. U.S. Treasuries Long-term U.S. government bonds are considered risk-free assets. Their yields decline (prices rise) when investors seek protection. Gold — Technical Perspective In the current geopolitical context, there remains a high probability of gold advancing toward new historical highs — targeting the 5,612 region with potential expansion toward 6,000. From a technical perspective, there are no significant problematic zones on the path toward these targets. The only restraining factor may be a seller reaction near the historical high (ATH), where liquidity traditionally concentrates and profit-taking may occur. Silver — Technical Perspective Silver also demonstrates potential to update its historical high — with 121 as the reference level. From a technical standpoint, the situation is more ambiguous. Price is currently trading within a local sideways range between two problematic zones — a Tested FVG and a BPR — which creates short-term uncertainty. • Key attention should be paid to liquidity interaction: • Engagement with SSL and BSL Acceptance above the key extreme Consolidation above a significant level indicates readiness by large participants to absorb opposing pressure and support higher prices. Additional confirmation would come from the formation of a new imbalance. Oil — Bullish Order Flow However, the list of interesting instruments does not end here. Iran is one of the key oil exporters, and approximately 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any escalation in the region creates supply disruption risks, which logically translates into upward pressure on oil prices. Technically, everything looks as it should: • Price respects bullish zones of interest • Price does not respect bearish zones • During corrections, institutional players accumulate long positions while working through liquidity All of this indicates bullish order flow. There is no need to invent anything. We work alongside large market participants — maintaining a long bias. Next interesting targets: Of course, it is important to understand that the key driver is the current geopolitical situation, and the driver of price appreciation is further escalation. Short-Term Tactical Focus Strengthening of the U.S. dollar under such conditions increases pressure on assets inversely correlated with USD. Accordingly, equities, stock indices, and currencies sensitive to dollar dynamics may demonstrate relative weakness. In the short term, is this an opportunity to search for short positions in: • The euro • The British pound • Selected European and American indices • The cryptocurrency market Additionally, if holding exposure to CNY, INR, IRR, SAR, JPY, or KRW, a rational decision under rising global risks may be partial conversion into U.S. dollars or Swiss francs as more defensive currencies. P.S. Should we prepare for Black Monday? Please share your thoughts in the comments.. Enjoy!
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by LonesomeTheBlue
15
XAUUSD Analysis | Gap Potential as Tensions Escalate!Hey Traders, In the coming week, we are expecting Gold (XAUUSD) to potentially open with a gap higher, driven by the ongoing escalations in the Middle East — particularly tensions involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, with increasing regional involvement. In periods of geopolitical instability and war-like environments, safe-haven demand for Gold typically rises, and this dynamic could fuel early-week upside momentum. From a technical perspective, Gold continues to respect a strong higher highs and higher lows structure, maintaining its broader uptrend. Price recently delivered a clean bounce from the 5,130 support zone, reinforcing the bullish trend. Currently, I am watching for a potential breakout driven by rising safe-haven flows and a possible upside gap. If that breakout materializes, I will then monitor a retracement toward the 5,320 area, which could offer a continuation opportunity toward fresh highs. As always, patience, confirmation, and risk management remain key. Trade safe, Joe.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
28
Oil - the biggest week in 40 yearsOver the past four years, almost every trader or commodities analyst has discussed the ramifications of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on oil prices. That hypothesis has now finally materialised. It's still too early to say how oil markets will be impact. Previous regional wars have taught us to be cautious. Energy markets don't always behave as expected. Traders are focused on short term supply disruptions, the movement of energy, disruption to the status quo. The overall electrification of energy demand is also a major factor, together with the US becoming increasingly energy dependent. However dispute all these cautions, oil price have been subdued for a few years now. Particularly when pricing oil in gold. Oil isn't expensive, so there could be some upward momentum in the coming weeks. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
TVC:UKOILLong
by Blueberry
12
At the Edge: Breakdown or New Rally in Coinbase?On the daily timeframe, the stock has retraced sharply from its 400+ rally peak and is now sitting on a major historical support zone around $155–165. The long-term moving average is sloping downward and price remains below it, meaning the medium-term structure is still corrective. This support reaction is critical. Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks) Bullish Rebound Scenario If price holds above $165–170: • 🎯 Target 1: $205 • 🎯 Target 2: $240 • 🎯 Target 3: $280 • ⛔ Stop Loss: Daily close below $150 Bearish Breakdown Scenario If $150 fails: • 🎯 Target 1: $120 • 🎯 Target 2: $95–100 • ⛔ Stop Loss (short): Close above $170 Long-Term Outlook (6–12 Months) Coinbase is highly correlated with Bitcoin cycles. Bull Cycle Scenario If crypto enters a new bull run and COIN reclaims $240: • 🎯 $320 • 🎯 $400 • 🎯 Extended target: $480 • ⛔ Investment Stop: Breakdown below $120 Bear Cycle Scenario If crypto weakens: • Possible retracement toward $80–100 • That zone may become long-term accumulation area. Fundamental Snapshot Coinbase Global Inc. is the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange. Growth drivers: • Higher crypto trading volumes • Bitcoin ETFs • Institutional custody and staking revenue • Broader crypto adoption Risks: • Revenue highly dependent on transaction fees • Regulatory pressure • Extreme crypto volatility In summary: High beta to Bitcoin — explosive in bull markets, painful in corrections.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by isahebdadi
13
S&P500 could go up nowHi traders, Last week SPX500USD followed exactly the path of my arrow. So I think this bigger Triangle pattern (red wave 4) could now be finished. In that case next week we could see an impulsive upmove. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for an impulsive wave up and a correction down. After a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe you could trade longs. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Manage your emotions, trade your edge! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
32
Australian Stock Index ASX 200 Reaches Record HighAustralian Stock Index ASX 200 Reaches Record High As the chart of the ASX 200 index shows, today’s candle has moved above the 9,210 level, marking a fresh all-time high. Since the start of the year, the benchmark of Australian equities has gained more than 5.6%, supported by: → A strong earnings season. A significant number of companies not only exceeded analysts’ expectations but also upgraded their profit forecasts for the 2026 financial year. → Economic resilience. The unemployment rate remains low despite the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining a firm policy stance. → Elevated prices for gold, uranium and copper, along with signs of a recovery in China’s economy, which have provided support to the mining sector. Technical Analysis of the ASX 200 Chart Price action continues to unfold within an ascending channel (highlighted in blue) that has been in place since autumn 2025. Within this structure: → The median line acted as support on 24 February, signalling underlying strength. → The upper boundary has repeatedly served as resistance during 2026. It is worth noting that: → The psychological 9,100 level had previously capped gains within the channel. → The index has now climbed above 9,200 near the upper boundary of the blue channel. → The RSI indicator is approaching overbought territory. Given these factors, it is reasonable to assume that some long-position holders may look to take profits, potentially leading to a pause in bullish momentum. As a result, the following scenario cannot be ruled out: → Failure to secure a sustained move above 9,200; → The development of a corrective pullback in the ASX 200 (Australia 200 on FXOpen). In such a case, support may emerge near the lower orange trend line, which reflects the upward trajectory seen during the second half of the month. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:AUS200
by FXOpen
14
WTI Oil Pulls Back from Its 2026 HighWTI Oil Pulls Back from Its 2026 High As the XTI/USD chart shows, the price of a barrel: → set fresh 2026 highs above $67 earlier this week; → but yesterday posted a sharp reversal lower (as indicated by the blue arrow). The spike in volatility was driven by conflicting reports from Geneva, where talks between the United States and Iran were taking place: → some sources suggested negotiations had reached an impasse, as Washington insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment; → meanwhile, according to Omani mediators, progress has been made and another round of talks is scheduled for next week. Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart When analysing the oil price chart on the morning of 19 February, we suggested that: → the market could soon set a new high for the year (which materialised, with a series of highs formed between 19 and 23 February); → the 65.20 level would act as support (confirmed on 23 February). Today’s chart indicates growing bearish pressure, reflected in the following: → WTI struggled to hold above its yearly highs, forming signs of potential bull traps; → yesterday’s candle (marked with a red arrow) shows a pronounced upper wick. At the same time, bulls clearly defended the former resistance level at $63.73. The lower boundary of the ascending trajectory that has defined WTI price movements in 2026 also supports the bullish case. It is worth noting that an OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for the weekend. According to media reports, analysts expect an increase in output from April, which could heighten concerns about oversupply — particularly after US crude inventories rose on Wednesday. As a result, Monday’s trading may open with elevated volatility. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
11
DOGE Distribution Warning: Is a Sharp Flush Coming?Yello Paradisers! Are you seeing what smart money is quietly doing on #DOGE right now, or are you about to get caught in the next possible sharp downside move? At first glance, this looks like “just another healthy pullback.” That’s exactly how retail traders get trapped. But when we read the structure properly and remove emotions from the equation, the chart is telling a very different story. Right now, this is not a place for emotional trading. This is a place for discipline. 💎#DOGE has clearly respected the descending resistance trend-line and failed to break above it. That rejection is not random. It confirms ongoing structural weakness. As long as price holds momentum within the supply zone/Order block + FVG zone 1H, probability favours continuation to the downside. The immediate minor support sits around 8985. If bearish pressure continues, that level becomes the first magnet. 💎From Volume Spread Analysis perspective, the sequence is even more revealing. We saw a buying climax followed by a climactic action bar. This combination typically shows distribution. In simple terms, institutions use these aggressive spikes to offload positions into retail enthusiasm. When the crowd feels confident, smart money distributes quietly. 💎#DOGE has now swept the upper trigger line of buying climax. This is a key weakness confirmation. When a buying climax upper trigger line swept, it shows that demand is not strong enough to absorb supply. If bearish momentum continues, the next major possible target sits around 8030, which could be tested sooner than many expect. 💎If #DOGE manages to break above the key resistance at 10875 with a strong momentum candle, this whole bearish probability would be invalidated, and we could instead see a bullish continuation. As always, we let price confirm our bias. Discipline is key, Paradisers! The charts may look volatile, but this is where professionals thrive and amateurs panic. Don’t let emotions guide your trades. Wait for clear confirmation and manage risk like a pro. Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
42
Bitcoin 3-Day 'Death Cross' Signalling 50% Incoming Drop In this quick study I'm showing how in Prior Cycles Bitcoin has seen additional 40 to 50% drops from where we are now. On this 3-day charge and looking at the crossover of the 50. EMA below the 200. EMA in blue, we've seen previously deeper corrections in the 50% range. So while we could see a recovery balance in March, since we've been down 5 months with Red candles in a row. I still think this is ominous and looks poised to drop lower. My other studies show a drop to at least the $50,000 to $52,000 range where we can see buyers lined up there for a strong bounce, or potentially bottom using "buyer" block signals. But in this worst case scenario, we could see Bitcoin down to around the 34,000 level as an ultimate low. Questions and comments welcome. Let me know what you think in terms of where and when the bottom will be this year.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BrettFogle
67