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Bitcoin - Volatility-Contraction - Trade-OpportunityThis is the current range of accumulation. You have to consider 2 things; 1- Latest expansion move was a down move. 79.000$ to 59.000$, so the upmove can be a retracement until proven otherwise. 2- We are stuck in this range for a while and it's completely normal after a couple of expansion. You can expect next week's trump talk or Initial Jobless Claims to change this but they might not. What to expect? 1- Volume Starts Concentrating -You’ll see volume building inside a tight price area - A clear High Volume Node (HVN) forms Market is accepting value there = balance phase This is energy building, not direction yet. Another Scenario - If The Point of Control (POC) keeps getting revisited 1- Price rotates around it 2- Breakouts fail until one side absorbs enough liquidity 3- If price cannot leave value, expect continuation of compression. What to watch = LVN Creation If breakout starts: Price moves quickly through Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) That’s imbalance = auction leaving value Clean breakout = fast move through low-volume area Fake breakout = immediate return back to POC
by UmutTrades
20
GBP/JPY Coiled Like a Spring – Breakdown Could Be Brutal📊 GBP/JPY Technical Outlook ✅GBP/JPY is currently trading inside a large symmetrical triangle, showing clear compression between descending resistance and rising support. Price has respected both boundaries multiple times, forming lower highs while maintaining higher lows — a classic volatility squeeze setup. ✅The structure is tightening, and as we approach the apex, a breakout becomes increasingly likely. ✅At the moment, price is hovering near the rising trendline support. A confirmed breakdown below this structure could trigger strong bearish momentum toward the marked key zones and psychological levels below. ✅On the other hand, a strong bullish breakout above the descending resistance would invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door for upside continuation. ✅This pair is known for aggressive moves — once GBP/JPY breaks structure, it rarely moves slowly. OANDA:GBPJPY 🎯 Trading Perspective Bias: Wait for confirmed breakout Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below triangle → Target lower key zones Bullish Scenario: Strong close above resistance → Momentum expansion Invalidation: False breakout and return inside structure Patience is critical here. Let the market show direction before committing. ✅ Support this analysis with a LIKE 👍 | COMMENT 💬 | FOLLOW 🔔 It helps a lot & keeps the ideas coming! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Short
by AM_AlphaTrading
37
20.02.26 Daily ForecastFX:AUDUSD - We have the potential to look for longs on this pair with the DXY failing to break the high it is currently sat at. A simple 15M continuation will confirm the move to the upside with the possibility of the DXY selling off to the downside. FX:USDJPY - Price has formed a first touch and I am now looking for development within the middle section of the flag to create some depth into the second touch. If we get this, I will look for a 15M or 1H RE long up into the next value area. FX:NZDJPY - Price action may not look the cleanest, but reading between the lines we can see the structures being built by the market. A potential 123 structure back into the value area, insurance entry only here due to losing the impulsive leg therefore mitigating risk with a confirmed continuation.
by JordanWillson
18
OIL Breakout Done , Long Setup Valid To Get 500 Pips !Here is my 4H Chart on OIL , We Have A Clear Breakout and the price closed above my old res And above my C.T.L after more than 4 weeks the price respect the res and touch it and move to downside but for the first time the price closed above it with Daily Candle and that prove it`s a real breakout and we have a very good bullish Price Action on 4H /Daily T.F Also , the price will try to retest the area and if it give us a good bullish price action on smaller time frames we can enter a buy trade and we can targeting from 200 to 400 pips , if we have a daily closure again below my new res then this idea will not be valid anymore . Entry Reasons : 1- Clear Daily Breakout . 2- Many T.F Confirmations . 3- Perfect Price Action . 4- Clear Bullish P.A . 5- Broken C.T.L .
TVC:USOILLong
by FX_Elite_Club
21
Copper is Next - After Gold & SilverLast week, we came across news: China calls for more copper stockpiling. Therefore, is Copper Next to Rally After Silver and Gold? Why Is China Stockpiling Copper? In the video I posted last week, I explained that the Gold/Copper ratio may face resistance at the upper band of its long-term parallel channel. We should start monitoring it closely. If the ratio begins to react or move lower, it could indicate that copper’s rate of change on the upside may exceed that of gold. I conducted a very similar analysis on the Gold/Silver ratio in mid-2025. Subsequently, we saw that silver’s percentage gains exceeded those of gold. Video version: Micro Copper Ticker: MHG Minimum fluctuation: 0.0005 per pound = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
COMEX:HG1!Long
by konhow
5
GBP/USD is currently under severe pressureGBP/USD is currently under severe pressure, trading around the psychological level of 1.3500. ✅ Pound Sterling: March Rate Cut Expectations The GBP continues to exhibit structural weakness due to two key fundamental factors: - Subdued Inflation: Recent data showed UK consumer inflation fell to its lowest level in almost a year. This provides room for the Bank of England (BoE) to be more aggressive in easing monetary policy. - Weak Labor Market: A disappointing jobs report earlier this week strengthened market confidence that the BoE will cut interest rates at its March meeting. ✅ US Dollar: FOMC Split & War Risks The greenback (USD) maintained its strength at a one-week high thanks to a combination of the following sentiments: - Divided FOMC Minutes: The January meeting minutes showed Fed officials were not unanimous. Some feared premature easing would undermine the 2% inflation target, while others saw the possibility of a cut if the data supported it. This uncertainty actually benefits the dollar by dispelling hopes of a premature interest rate cut. - Threat of Attack on Iran: Reports of the US military's readiness to launch an attack as soon as this weekend have triggered an influx of funds into safe-haven assets. As the world's reserve currency, the USD is a major beneficiary of this geopolitical tension. ✅ GBP/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday) Technically, the pair is consolidating its weekly decline near a four-week low. - Critical Support ($1.3450 - $1.3480): A breakout of this four-week low will confirm the continuation of the downtrend towards the next psychological target at 1.3300. - Nearest Resistance ($1.3550): Recovery attempts are likely to stall in this area. As long as the price remains below 1.3550, the daily bias remains bearish. - Strategy: Given the negative short-term outlook, any current price increase will likely be used by traders as an opportunity to sell (Sell on Rally).
Short
by NouzTrader
7
Figma Stock Powers Up 16% on Solid Results. Turnaround Possible?(From IPO darling to design underdog and maybe back again.) 🎨 From Hero to Hangover It has been a dramatic few months for Figma NYSE:FIG . The design software firm burst onto the public markets in late July with the kind of debut that makes investment bankers frame the tombstone. Shares surged 250% on day one , instantly earning “IPO hero” status in 2025’s reopening market. Then reality arrived. Since that euphoric launch, the stock has slid nearly 35% this year, hovering below its $33 offering price and sitting more than 80% below its all-time intraday high, set on its second trading day. From confetti to caution in record time. 📊 Earnings That Changed the Mood Wednesday’s earnings report, however, may have given bulls something to work with. Figma posted fourth-quarter revenue of $303.8 million, up 40% year over year and ahead of expectations for $293 million. Adjusted earnings came in at 8 cents per share, topping consensus estimates of 7 cents. Shares jumped around 15–16% in after-hours trading, adding momentum to a stock that had already crept higher earlier in the week. On an adjusted basis, the company earned about $43 million, though under standard accounting rules, it posted a $226.6 million loss, largely due to stock-based compensation tied to the IPO. The headline takeaway? Growth remains strong. Profitability remains complicated. 🚀 Guidance Points Higher Figma also delivered upbeat guidance, forecasting higher sales for both the first quarter and full-year 2026 than Wall Street had penciled in. That matters in a software market where growth deceleration has become the dominant fear . Investors have punished companies showing even slight softness. Figma, by contrast, is still expanding at a pace many mature software names would envy. The question is whether growth alone can offset valuation concerns. 🤖 AI Anxiety Meets AI Opportunity Like many software firms, Figma sits at the intersection of design and artificial intelligence. That intersection can inspire both excitement and fear. Some investors worry that AI tools could compress demand for traditional design workflows. Others argue AI will expand the total addressable market by lowering barriers to entry and boosting productivity. Figma appears to be leaning into the opportunity. Earlier this week, it announced a partnership with Anthropic, developer of the Claude large language model, enabling users to transform AI-generated code into fully formed designs. The market seemed to approve. Shares rose 2.5% Tuesday and another 5% Wednesday before earnings even hit. 💸 Valuation: Still a Stretch Despite the recent pullback, Figma remains expensive by traditional metrics (but does it matter anymore?). The stock trades at nearly 90 times projected earnings for this year. That is a multiple that requires sustained growth and margin improvement to justify. Analyst sentiment reflects caution. Of the twelve covering the stock, only three rate it a Buy. Eight sit at Hold, and one maintains a Sell rating. Investors appear intrigued by the growth story but wary of paying too much for it. 🥊 Competition Lurks Figma also faces credible competition. Canva, a private design software company with massive user reach, is rumored to be preparing its own IPO filing later this year. The rivalry between the two platforms shapes investor perception. Figma appeals strongly to professional designers and product teams. Canva leans into ease of use and scale. Both sit in markets increasingly influenced by AI-driven automation. Market share gains and ecosystem stickiness will matter more than narrative over the next year. 🧭 Is a Turnaround Brewing? A 16% pop does not erase months of losses. It does, however, suggest that expectations had grown sufficiently modest for solid execution to surprise. Revenue acceleration, AI integration, and improved guidance offer a constructive foundation. At the same time, high valuation and competitive pressure keep enthusiasm measured. Turnarounds rarely announce themselves with fireworks. They begin with steady improvements in fundamentals and a shift in sentiment. Work in silence, let success make the noise, right? This said, the earnings season continues with Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reporting next week. Off to you : Do you think it’s time for Figma NYSE:FIG to finally turn it around? Are you looking to buy at market open? Share your thoughts below!
NYSE:FIG
by TradingView
16
Gold (xauusd): Resistance Flip Could Open Path to 5,400+Hi! Gold is currently compressing below a key resistance zone while forming a short-term recovery structure after breaking the local descending trendline. Price is now approaching a decisive area where momentum could shift bullish if buyers step in with volume. The main level to watch is the blue resistance zone around 5,070 – 5,120. If price breaks and holds above this area, it would confirm strength and open the path for continuation toward the pink target zone near 5,380 – 5,450. From a macro perspective, geopolitical tensions are still providing underlying support for gold demand. This increases the probability that any confirmed breakout could be sustained rather than turning into a fake move. Trading Plan: Bullish scenario: Breakout and acceptance above ~5,100 → Look for long continuation setups. Target: 5,400 region. Invalidation: Rejection and move back below the resistance zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by melikatrader94
38
FEAR ? The Logic of the "Fear Zone" & Macro Reset Logarithmic Regression Channel (15-Year Trend) As seen in the chart above, Bitcoin is currently trading within the Green "FEAR" Zone of its 15-year logarithmic regression channel. Historical Significance: Every major cycle bottom (2015, 2019, 2022) has occurred precisely within this green band. Current Status: Price action is hugging the lower boundary. Historically, this zone has offered the highest Asymmetric Risk/Reward ratio for long-term accumulation. The RSI on the 3D timeframe has reset to the 45-46 level. In previous bull runs, this level acted as a springboard for the next leg up (Expansion Phase). The momentum has cooled off completely without breaking the market structure. While not shown in this specific chart, the OTHERS/NVIDIA pair is forming a massive Falling Wedge. The capital that flowed into AI stocks (Risk-On) over the last 2 years is poised to rotate back into the undervalued Crypto market as the AI trade becomes overcrowded. The math suggests we are at a "Generation Buy" level. The downside is limited to the channel floor, while the upside targets the "FOMO" band (Red Zone). We are not leaving the ship. We are accumulating while the crowd is bored. Lower Bollinger Band Test: The price action has retraced to the Lower Bollinger Band. Historically (as marked by the upward arrows on the chart), touching or hugging this lower band indicates the cyclical "accumulation zone." We saw this in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022. We are currently testing this zone again. RSI at 43: The Monthly RSI is currently at 43, sitting exactly on the historical support line (red horizontal line). Every time the Monthly RSI has touched the 42-44 zone in the last 14 years, it marked the end of the bear market/correction phase. This suggests that seller momentum is mathematically exhausted on a macro scale. While the indicators suggest a bottom, the price is currently below the Middle Band (Red Line). This confirms we are in a "buyer's market" (accumulation) rather than a confirmed bull run. The strategy here is accumulation at support, anticipating a mean reversion to the middle band. Bitcoin is trading at a "Maximum Financial Opportunity" zone based on historical Logarithmic Band and RSI data. While fear is high, the math suggests the downside is limited compared to the cyclical upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Cryptollica
18
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Entry Detected )⚡Base : Hanzo Trading Alpha Algorithm The algorithm calculates volatility displacement vs liquidity recovery, identifying where probability meets imbalance. It trades only where precision, volume, and manipulation intersect —only logic. ✈️ Technical Reasons / Direction — SHORT / Reversal 4987 Area ☄️Bearish rejection confirmed through sharp candle body. ☄️Lower-high forming beneath resistance supply region. ☄️Volume decreasing confirms exhaustion in price rally. ☄️Sellers regained imbalance with heavy top rejection. ☄️Algorithm detects fading demand and shift to control. ⚙️ Hanzo Alpha Trading Protocol The Alpha Candle defines the day’s real control zone — the first battle of momentum. From this origin, the Volume Window reveals where the next precision strike begins. ⚙️ Hanzo Volume Window / Map Window tracked from 10:30 — mapping true market behavior. POC alignment exposes institutional bias and breakout potential zones. ⚙️ Hanzo Delta Window / Pulse Delta window monitors real buying vs. selling power behind each move. Tracks volume aggression to expose who controls the candle — buyers or sellers. When Delta aligns with Volume Map, momentum becomes undeniable.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Path_Of_Hanzo
23
How to Spot Altseason: The Capital Rotation Relay ExplainedEvery bull run I get the same DM: “When altseason bro?” There is no magic altseason button. There is capital rotation. BTC → ETH → top alts. And the switch is visible right in the structure, if you know what to watch. Forget indicators for a second. Just imagine the market as a relay race. First runner: BTC Second runner: ETH Third runner: top alts (SOL, BNB, majors) Then maybe the meme trash at the very end. The trick is to see exactly when the baton changes hands. How BTC structure looks when it’s “dominant” - Clear higher highs and higher lows on daily - Strong impulsive candles, shallow pullbacks - BTC dominance making higher highs - ETH and alts going up less or just chopping In this phase, chasing alts is like trying to overtake a Ferrari on a bicycle. Funny, but painful. Then the first switch: BTC → ETH Here’s what usually happens in structure: - BTC stops trending cleanly. You start seeing: - Ranging at the top - Fake breakouts - First lower high on 4H or daily At the same time ETH starts acting different: - ETHUSD holds a higher low while BTC is retesting deeper - ETH breaks its range high while BTC is still stuck - ETHBTC (very important) breaks a downtrend or range to the upside That ETHBTC chart is like the “who is boss now” chart. If BTC is flat and ETHBTC is climbing - money is literally rotating into ETH. Then the second switch: ETH → top alts Replay the same logic: - ETH has already had a good move, starts to range - Wicks both sides, no clean follow through up - ETHBTC cools off or starts forming lower highs And suddenly top alts start showing life: - After months of downtrend, you see first clear higher low on daily - Break of structure: coin stops making lower lows and finally closes above the last lower high - While BTC and ETH are moving sideways, some majors are quietly doing +10-20% days That’s not “random pump”. That’s rotation. My simple rule of thumb: - BTC vertical - focus on BTC - BTC ranging, ETHBTC strong - focus on ETH - ETH ranging, majors breaking downtrends - scan top alts Maybe I’m wrong, but I think “altseason” is just a lazy name for a very readable sequence: BTC runs, cools, ETH takes over, cools, majors take over. Next time market is moving, don’t just stare at one chart. Put BTCUSD, ETHUSD, ETHBTC and 2-3 top alts side by side and literally ask: “Who is making higher highs while others are sleeping?” That’s usually where the baton is - and where the fresh money is flowing.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by Trade_Logic_AI
24
Btc and the midterm election cycles2026 sees the midterm election over in the USA, these midterms seem to have an adverse effect on the bitcoin price as you can see from what I've drawn. I've looked back to the last 2 midterms, 2018 and 2022 and both have the same conclusion, large drawdowns. 2018 saw an 84% price decrease on bitcoin and in 2022 a 77% decrease, if we say the drawdowns are decreasing by 7% from the last 2, then we could see a drawdown of 70% from our $126k top to around $38k area. These drawdowns also seems to start around a year prior to the midterms give or take a month or 2. This isn't any guarantee, this is theory but the theory seems to be at this point rhyming, we could of course go lower than 70% or we could bounce on any good news from anywhere, you all know how this works, but this is just my idea, I've also added a harmonic into this drawdown, but we could also be looking at an ABCD correction. I didn't want to add to many drawings onto the chart, I try and keep these clean of other distractions, but there is an ABCD corrective harmonic in there. You can also draw these drawdowns on the S&P and the NAS, they also have something similar but not as deep as the bitcoin corrections. Just a little more info, we have 2 CME gaps on the 4hr chart 1 being between $39,450 and $39,350, the other is lower (I personally don't think we'll hit it, but posting for reference) this is at $21,110 and $20,145 As always, this isn't financial advice, this is my personal idea of how I'm looking at things from my perspective......
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by azda71
28
BITCOIN MACRO UPDATE LIFE CYCLE, STRUCTURE & PRICE LEVELSIt is timely to revisit the typical crypto market cycle, as Bitcoin continues to respect it with remarkable precision. The macro top was confirmed in October, when BTC tested the $126,000 zone, marking the current cycle ATH. Since that rejection, price has transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase, which structurally aligns with the early stages of a broader bear market cycle. From a wave structure perspective, price action is developing an extended corrective formation (ABC). The initial decline from $126K to the $59K region completes Wave A. Current market behavior suggests a potential Wave B recovery toward the key supply and resistance band around $84,800–$90,000, where sellers are expected to reassert control. Failure to reclaim and hold above this supply zone would likely trigger Wave C, with downside continuation toward the $34,000–$30,000 projected target area. This zone aligns with historical demand, prior cycle accumulation, and long-term value based interest making it a critical region for strategic accumulation, not panic. Cycle analysis indicates that this corrective phase may extend into early 2027, setting the stage for the next major accumulation and recovery phase. While short- to mid-term volatility and downside risk remain valid, the broader macro structure continues to support higher prices long term, with expansion potential toward $200,000+ once the cycle reset completes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by weslad
76
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6735.Colleagues, it seems that we are facing a combined correction, which means that wave “2” is not yet complete and we should expect a price decline to the support area of 6735, where I think we should take profits. As part of a small “abc” correction, it is possible to reach the 6900 area before the decline begins, but I still give priority to the downward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Hellena_Trade
30
Bitcoin: 80% 80K Price Objective. While the Broader structure is pointing bearish, recent consolidation after testing the 60K area support suggests a potential bullish retrace with an 80K price objective. There are 3 key support areas or "order blocks" to be aware of. The 59K to 60K (weekly) and the 66K to 68K area where price is fluctuating now. How you define risk will depend on the time frame you use to confirm an entry. In this time frame (12H) risk can be defined by the 66K level. This is where stop loss orders should be considered if a reversal confirmation appears. The scenario on this chart illustrates the potential retrace scenario. Keep in mind this is not a broader trend change. There are two forms of confirmation: the failed low followed by a bullish reversal pattern (pin bar) or a resistance break (71K). The broader wave count is what I consider a Wave 2. This is a corrective wave which can test MUCH lower prices (50K). This type of structure is NOT necessarily bearish, although the sentiment can lean extreme at times. In my opinion, I like to compare it to the multi year Gold consolidation before breaking out to where it is now. Bitcoin is no stranger to multi year consolidations either. The key is not to lose site of this possibility, ESPECIALLY IF range lows are tested around 50K or lower. Remember what the "experts" were saying a few months earlier? 200k? No one was expecting a test of 59K. PERCEPTION CHANGES. Back in December Powell and the FED were hinting at lower rates, QE, and cheap money everywhere. That story and PERCEPTION has changed. Now we have "less" rate of inflation as per the recent CPI report, and a stronger job market than expected thanks to the recent NFP report (I think F stands for 'fake'). ANYWAY. the point is. markets move on the PERCEIVED future, NOT the actual future. Bitcoin and the alt coins NEED a catalyst or series of catalysts to jump start the bullish market again. More rate cuts, continued global M2 expansion, lower bond yields across all the maturities, etc. "Bear Market" rallies are more probable from here which is why I anticipate a 80% probability that price tests the 80K objective over the coming two weeks. A probability is NOT a concrete forecast and price can go the other way as well, it all depends on what captures the perception of the market. Keep an OPEN mind and RISK under control. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
by MarcPMarkets
25
Bitcoin - Small correction before a big move upBitcoin is currently trading around $70,000 after recovering from a recent low. The market structure on the 4-hour timeframe shows a clear reaction from a liquidity event followed by a controlled move higher. However, price is now approaching a decision point as momentum begins to slow. The interaction between the recent liquidity sweep, the 4-hour bullish FVG, and the higher resistance FVG will likely determine the next directional move. Liquidity Sweep Before the recent recovery, Bitcoin performed a clear liquidity sweep below the previous short-term lows. Price briefly traded beneath the range, triggering stops and collecting sell-side liquidity, before sharply reversing upward. This type of move often signals that the market has completed a short-term corrective phase and is ready for expansion in the opposite direction. The strong reaction from that sweep confirms that buyers were waiting below the lows, using that liquidity event as fuel for the upside move. 4H Bullish FVG Following the liquidity sweep, price impulsively moved higher, creating a 4-hour bullish fair value gap. This zone now acts as strong support and represents the area where buyers stepped in aggressively. As long as Bitcoin holds above this 4H bullish FVG, the short-term structure remains constructive. A retracement into this zone would not necessarily be bearish; instead, it could provide a healthy pullback to rebalance inefficiencies before continuation higher. A clean hold of this support would reinforce bullish positioning. Decreasing Volume and Momentum As price pushes upward, volume and momentum appear to be decreasing. The recent candles show less expansion compared to the initial impulsive move off the lows. This slowdown suggests that buyers are becoming less aggressive near current levels, potentially due to overhead resistance. When momentum fades into resistance, the market often either consolidates or retraces before attempting the next leg. This increases the probability of a temporary pullback into the 4H bullish FVG before continuation. Target The primary upside target sits at the 4-hour bearish FVG above, around the $74,000 – $75,000 region. This zone represents unfilled imbalance and prior selling pressure, making it a logical magnet for price. Markets are naturally drawn toward inefficiencies, and as long as the bullish structure remains intact, this area serves as the next key objective. A decisive break above that bearish FVG would open the door for further upside expansion. Conclusion Bitcoin remains structurally bullish after the liquidity sweep and strong recovery from the lows. The 4-hour bullish FVG provides clear support, while the bearish FVG above acts as the main upside target. However, decreasing momentum suggests that a short-term pullback into support is possible before continuation. As long as the bullish FVG holds, the bias favors an eventual move toward the higher imbalance zone. ------------------------- Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Long
by Youriverse
65
General Market Conditions: What’s That and Why Should You Care?(It’s Jesse Livermore’s best friend — and maybe yours too.) 📖 A Lesson from an Old Tape Reader In Reminiscences of a Stock Operator , a top read for traders , the legendary speculator Jesse Livermore repeatedly returns to one idea: before you bet big, understand the general market conditions. He treated them like a trusted companion. His best friend in trading and speculating. When conditions aligned, he pressed his advantage. When they didn’t, he stepped aside and went fishing. Livermore made fortunes and lost them. What defines his success, in his own words, was whether he respected the broader environment or tried to outsmart it. 🌦️ What Are “General Market Conditions,” Anyway? The phrase sounds grand and slightly mysterious. In practice, it’s simpler than it appears. General market conditions, or underlying market conditions, describe the overall environment in which individual trades operate. Are markets trending higher with confidence? Sliding lower with urgency? Drifting sideways with low conviction? It is the difference between swimming with the current and struggling against it. A bullish stock inside a bearish market often struggles. A mediocre stock inside a powerful bull phase can thrive. “In bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news exaggerated, and vice versa.” Next time you look at the economic calendar and see that the US created 130,000 jobs, but stocks nosedive , it’s probably sour market sentiment in play. 📈 When the Wind Is at Your Back Strong conditions show themselves clearly. Breakouts follow through. Pullbacks find buyers. Bad news gets shrugged off. Liquidity flows easily. In these phases, trades feel smooth, allowing the moves to extend and the trends to build up and scale. Livermore understood that large gains tend to come during these periods. The “big money,” as he put it, lies in sitting with the main move of the market rather than jumping from stock to stock in search of action. 🌪️ When the Tape Turns Moody Weak conditions tell their own story. Rallies stall and good earnings fail to impress. Leaders roll over quietly. Volatility increases while direction fades. Traders who ignore these signals often blame individual setups. In reality, the broader environment has shifted. General market conditions can be subtle too. And before you know it, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL has entered into a correction , shedding more than 10% from its peak at $350 . 🧠 Why Smart Traders Care Many traders focus intensely on entries and exits. They refine indicators, optimize parameters, and analyze patterns to the tick. Few pause to ask whether the overall market climate supports their strategy. A trend-following system thrives in trending environments. Mean-reversion works best in stable, range-bound phases. Aligning strategy with conditions can improve performance without changing a single technical input. Livermore’s insight was elegantly simple: determine the general direction before committing serious capital. 🏦 Today’s Version of the Same Idea Modern markets express general conditions through multiple lenses: Central bank policy Liquidity trends Sector leadership Volatility levels Correlation across assets When yields rise and liquidity tightens, risk appetite shifts. When policy eases and growth accelerates, equities often respond positively. Even cryptocurrency like Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and precious metals like silver OANDA:XAGUSD react to these broader forces. No market trades in isolation for long. 🎢 How to Spot the Environment You do not need an economics degree to sense market conditions. Watch how price reacts to news. Observe whether breakouts extend or fade. Notice whether dips attract buyers quickly. Solid earnings and guidance, but no reaction? That’s a cue of market fatigue. If most setups work, the wind supports you. If many fail, conditions may be misaligned. The tape always leaves clues. Jesse Livermore recognized this more than a century ago and treated the broader environment as his closest ally. Understanding the market’s mood does not guarantee profits. But it definitely helps with timing, strengthens discipline, and sharpens perspective. Off to you : How do you work with the general market conditions? Share your approach in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
17
NVDA - Techs Fail and Insiders BailThis chart looks ugly for the bulls. That red trendline has been holding the price up for months, but now it is finally giving way. When a major support level like this cracks, it usually means the uptrend is over and we are heading lower. But the real red flag is what the leadership is doing. Insiders are not buying this dip. In fact, they are selling aggressively. The CFO and other top executives have dumped millions of dollars worth of stock recently. If they genuinely believed NVDA was going higher in the long run, they would be holding on to their shares. Instead, they seem to be rushing for the exit. We have a broken chart and leadership cashing out. That is a dangerous combination you don't want to be buying into. If the red line is broken the knife will fall.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Bull-Investor
10
Nvidia May Be RangeboundNvidia has gone nowhere since October, and some traders may think the AI giant is rangebound. The first pattern on today’s chart is the December 26 high of $192.69. NVDA probed that level in late January and again this month without breaking out. That may suggest that resistance is in place. Second is the December 17 low of $170.31. The stock fell near that level last month and bounced, which could mean it’s providing support. Third, NVDA made a higher high yesterday before reversing and closing below the previous session’s low. That bearish outside day is a potential reversal pattern. Fourth, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 100-day SMA last month and has stayed there since. Could that signal a weaker long-term trend? Next, stochastics are dipping from near an overbought condition. Finally, NVDA is a highly active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 2.4 million contracts ranks first in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. Learn more here about TradingView’s Broker of the Year! Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradeStation
3
Nasdaq Crash Incoming: Wave 3 of 3 DownOver in this video, I go through the 5th wave up and identify 2 key things for this top: 1. Wave 5 = Wave 3, since wave 1 is the longest, wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. 2. 2 Spinning tops marks the peak on 29th and 30th Oct 2025. The first wave down is a "leading diagonal" because wave 4 overlaps wave 1. The 2nd wave is quite long in terms of duration and forms in an A-B-C. The recent down move is sub-wave 1 of 3 and sub-wave 2 of 3. And we should be expecting a wave 3 of 3 down. In terms of trading, I recommend being more conservative and setting a higher stop with smaller size but for more aggressive traders, you can place your stop at the recent rebound high but that means you need to be more active in trading. No matter what, set your size according to your risk management. Good luck!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by yuchaosng
18
Bitcoin flashing traditional accumulation signals (alt season?)TL:DR Bitcoin is finding a bottom but probably still has some downside. Strong hand are probably accumulating Bitcoin and especially alts. Introduction Bitcoin is flashing multiple accumulation signals. But this downtrend has been so gradual and lacking in volatility it barely feels like a bear market to me. Just like the last bull market didn't feel like a bull market to many people use to the traditional volatility of Bitcoin and crypto. The Top chart This is pretty simple. The Weekly NVT is green. Every time its been green before bitcoin has been in a bottoming formation. The NTV is based on the quantity theory of money (QTM) and basically says bitcoin is undervalued at this price level given the number of transactions. You can read up on the QTM here . Price is below the slow-moving average of the Pi-Cycle Bottom . Pretty simple. The Pi-Cycle bottom was backwards engineered to find bitcoin bottoms and does a good job of at least finding the reversal structure when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA. Of course, in order for this to happen price has to be below both the fast and slow MA, like it is now. Price is below the weekly Gaussian Channel. Strong hands grab crypto when bitcoin is below the gaussian channel It is absolutely vital to recognize that both the Pi Cycle bottom hasn't flashed a bottom nor has the gaussian channel turned red. Since both of those have not happened yet its fair to assume we will have both more downside and longer time in the accumulation zone. BTC Monthly Chart Pretty simple. Strong hands accumulate when the D- is above the D+. We have fewer examples on this chart than our top chart but the signal is clear. We also easily see the Bollinger band width has reduced and price is close to finding support on the band. In previous bear markets price didn't touch the base of the band for support but it did the last bear market. So we might or might not see bitcoin touch the bottom of the band time around. Chart experimental overload The meat of the idea has already been articulated. But I have some other charts I am looking at and this is just for funsies to justify yolo'ing more money into alts. ETHBTC The least experimental chart. I have been posting on this since I recognized the double top years ago. Now we have an even bigger double bottom. Quite simply, so long as ETHBTC is in this W pattern and hasn't reached the 1.618 I remain a macro bull on eth and alts. ETHBTC will have times it might consolidate for years. I simply play the chart. It might stall at major fib levels and all time high. I will harvest profit. bMonthly btcusd/silver TBH bitcoin doesn't look like it is going to beat silver in the long run. It definitely looks like it is bouncing now. But its at a double top looking neckline to me as it comes out of a bearish rising wedge. I expect to see a bear flag develop at lower time frames. ETHUSD/Silver At Descending Triangle 1.618 Target. That's good enough for a bounce or a reversal. Others.d/btc.d Want an alt season? then others.d has to go up faster than btc.d And we see it finding support in this channel with a lot of hidden bullish divergence. I expect the price action to reverse at the 0.618 fibline of the channel or at the previous support of the head and shoulders neckline others.d/silver I was just experimenting with this chart and saw a pattern. I like patterns. This double top reached its target and now has hidden bullish divergence. And look at that green celery stick of a candle right on the 2.0 fib line. I am riding others until I see that silver might reverse it (at the double top neckline). Others/silver One experimental chart lead to another. Others/silver looks like it might be creating a triangle it could break out of later. Even better if the triangle breaks out to the upside. Others/Total3 This is another of my main alteason chart. Others is basically everything in the above the top 10 in marketcap. Total3 is everything but bitcoin and Ethereum. Altseason is really about everything above the top 10 going crazy. Crazier than the top 10 coins and definitely crazier than the top 2 coins. Basically, bitcoin in accumulation and others/total3 painting a triangle suggest altseason is percolating. Waiting for a break out of the blue trendline. Dxy+btc.d Alt season generally needs a declining dollar index and dropping bitcoin dominance. So why not smash the two into one chart? Here we go, with a breakdown target. Now I don't have to check btc.d and dxy seperately (but I still do, of course). Conclusion I'm in alts. Way up the risk curve from the top 10. Bitcoin in accumulation and silver pausing and reversing against alts gives permission for this. When BTC.d or BTC+DXY, or DXY or Silver start to show strength then I have to manage that by either rotating into btc or silver. Sure its a bit complicated but that makes it fun.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by This_Guhy
26
Bitcoin: Is the WXYXZ Correction Setting Up Wave C?Bitcoin: Is the WXYXZ Correction Setting Up Wave C? During the last 5 days BTC declined by nearly 5% from 72250 to 65170 Looks like the B wave has more a corrective movement and is expanding as WXYXZ pattern. If the price manages to move above the previous X near 68300 it will add the chances that our analysis is correct. Until that moment is a bit tricky Given that the first A wave was impulsive this is adding some extra value that we could be on the C impulsive wave soon as shown in the chart Key targets: 70800; 72970; 76600; 78970 You may find more details in the chart. Thank you and good luck! 🍀 ❤️ If this analysis helps your trading day, please support it with a like or comment ❤️
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
44
Microsoft: a major technical support at $350–$400Should Microsoft stock once again be considered in a DCA zone, after having corrected on the stock market since last November and now being the most expensive (in valuation terms) among the Magnificent 7 stocks? This is the question I will address in this new analysis on TradingView. Feel free to follow the Swissquote account to be notified of our upcoming analyses on U.S. tech star stocks. Here are the dominant technical and fundamental factors of our analysis: • Microsoft shares have corrected by more than 25% since their all-time high reached in 2025, moving against the trend of the other Magnificent 7 stocks • A major technical support is now close to the current price levels, located between $350 and $400 • From a fundamental perspective, Microsoft now has the highest P/E ratio among the Magnificent 7, suggesting potential catch-up opportunities, notably versus Apple and Alphabet (Google) • Within the software sector, Microsoft has one of the lowest forward P/E ratios It therefore appears that Microsoft stock is once again becoming an opportunity in the equity market compared to other U.S. tech leaders, provided that the S&P 500 is able to maintain its underlying bullish trend. The chart below shows weekly Japanese candlesticks for Microsoft stock: From a technical standpoint, the $350–$400 zone corresponds to a former long-term support that served as the base for several bullish acceleration phases during previous cycles. This area is also reinforced by major Fibonacci retracement levels as well as a high concentration of historical trading volumes. As long as prices remain above this zone, the long-term bullish structure remains intact, despite the significant correction observed since the 2025 peak. From a fundamental perspective, the recent correction has allowed Microsoft’s valuation to normalize. With a 2025E P/E close to 24 and a forward P/E of around 23.9, the stock now appears cheaper than the majority of major U.S. software companies, while maintaining revenue and cash-flow quality well above the sector average. This is particularly notable given that Microsoft remains one of the best-positioned players in monetizing AI through Azure, cloud services, and the integration of generative AI into its legacy software. The table below compares market valuations using forward P/E ratios for leading U.S. software companies: Compared with the other Magnificent 7 stocks, Microsoft currently displays a more reasonable valuation than Nvidia or Tesla, while offering better visibility on cash flows than players such as Amazon. This combination of financial strength, technological leadership, and a valuation that has become attractive again supports the hypothesis of a progressive DCA zone for long-term investors. In conclusion, as long as the S&P 500 maintains its underlying bullish momentum and the key $350–$400 support holds, Microsoft stock appears to offer a risk/reward profile that has become favorable again, particularly for a time-phased investment strategy. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. 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NASDAQ:MSFT
by Swissquote
9