For the first time since July of 2024 USD/JPY has pushed above the 160.00 handle.
The move hit around 1am Tokyo time so we could still see a response from Japanese policymakers around the Sunday open, and interestingly, last week began with another threat of intervention that brought pullback to USD/JPY which was jumped on buy buyers that drove right back up to create the current fresh highs.
At this point chasing the move is still a challenge, especially given the dynamics around weekly closes and opens. But, price being above 160.00 isn't necessarily a death knell either as, like 2022, we may simply be seeing the BoJ move their line-in-the-sand a bit higher.
Overhead, it's the 161.95 level that stands out which is a clean 1,000 pips above the intervention-high in 2022 (which held in 2023, as well), while also being the swing-high from 2024.
Until the fundamental backdrop changes, it's difficult to imagine interventions having any long-lasting success so if we do see the BoJ forced into action, that pullback remains as opportunistic, like we saw in April of 2024. - js
The move hit around 1am Tokyo time so we could still see a response from Japanese policymakers around the Sunday open, and interestingly, last week began with another threat of intervention that brought pullback to USD/JPY which was jumped on buy buyers that drove right back up to create the current fresh highs.
At this point chasing the move is still a challenge, especially given the dynamics around weekly closes and opens. But, price being above 160.00 isn't necessarily a death knell either as, like 2022, we may simply be seeing the BoJ move their line-in-the-sand a bit higher.
Overhead, it's the 161.95 level that stands out which is a clean 1,000 pips above the intervention-high in 2022 (which held in 2023, as well), while also being the swing-high from 2024.
Until the fundamental backdrop changes, it's difficult to imagine interventions having any long-lasting success so if we do see the BoJ forced into action, that pullback remains as opportunistic, like we saw in April of 2024. - js
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.