1973 vs 2026: Is Stagflation Repeating?Let’s run an experiment. Read the following text twice: first, focus on the history (before the slash); then, focus on today’s reality (after the slash):
In 1965 / 2022 , the US attempted the impossible: funding the Vietnam War / Ukraine & Israel conflicts , while maintaining the "Great Society"
Key data points
Last release
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Observation period
Feb 2026
Next release
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Forecast
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Highest
23.70 % on Jun 30, 1920
Lowest
−15.80 % on Jun 30, 1921
About US inflation rate YoY
In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: Food (14% of total weight); Energy (8%); Commodities Less Food & Energy Commodities (21%) and Services Less Energy Services (57%). The last category is divided by: Shelter (32%), Medical Care Services (7%) and Transportation Services (6%).
Related indicators
$USIRYY - U.S CPI (February/2026)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.4%
February/2026
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S annual inflation held at 2.4% in February, matching January and holding at the lowest since May 2025.
Monthly CPI rose 0.3%, up from 0.2% in January and in line with forecasts.
Core annual inflation remained
Does this RSI signature say US inflation is about to return?Simple chart.
As you can see, US Inflation has often formed a bullish convergence pattern on it's derived RSI that has been a good predictor of several inflation bottoms.
We have one right now as you can see.
The problem is, that usually, inflation prints this signature when inflation is signific
Will US CPI fall like Truflation?The very latest updates on US inflation according to the CPI price index deliver a clear message: disinflation has resumed in the United States after a plateau phase that lasted several months. However, the inflation target of the Federal Reserve is still not reached and remains at 2%.
The Januar
$USIRYY - U.S CPI (January/2026)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.4%
January/2026 -0.3%
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US likely slowed to 2.5% in January, marking its lowest level since May, largely reflecting base effects.
On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, ma
$USIRYY - U.S CPI (December/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.7%
December/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the U.S remained at 2.7% in December, while the core rate probably edged up to 2.7% from 2.6% in November which was the lowest level since early 2021.
On a month-over-month basis,
headlin
Is US Inflation Already Below 2%?After recent geopolitical noise and US employment data, this second week of January marks the major return of US inflation indicators through the CPI and PPI releases. While the sharp drop in inflation in November surprised markets, real-time inflation measures now appear to have fallen back below 2
$USIRYY - U.S CPI (November/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.7%
November/2025 -0.3%
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation in the US fell to 2.7% in November,
the lowest since July, and compared to 3% in September and market expectations of 3.1%.
Also, the core gauge fell to 2.6%,
the lowest since April 2021
Global Macro Breakdown – Q4 2025Real Rates, Policy Transition & Market Bias Across Assets
Macro Overview
Global monetary policy is undergoing a significant transition from tightening to early easing.
With inflation stabilizing and real interest rates beginning to decline, we are entering the onset of a new expansion phase in the
$USIRYY -U.S Inflation Rate (September/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 3%
September/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The US annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly below market expectations of 3.1%.
It was the highest rate since January, mainly due to a jump in energy prices. Meanwhile, core infla
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Frequently asked questions
The highest figure US inflation rate YoY has ever reached is 23.70%.
The lowest ever US inflation rate YoY is −15.80%.
Last month US inflation rate YoY was 2.40%, and the month before it reached 2.40%. To better understand the dynamics, compare these two values.









